764
FXUS63 KPAH 101145
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
545 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm system will bring 3 to 7 inches of snow, with
  the heavier totals more likely to occur over southeast
  Missouri, the Purchase Area of Kentucky, and adjacent portions
  of southern Illinois.

- Areas that have lingering ice cover from last weekend`s ice
  storm will be susceptible to the weight of the new snow
  bringing down additional tree branches. Additional power
  outages will be possible.

- Dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected this
  weekend through next week. Wind chill temperatures may drop to
  near zero over the Evansville Tri State in the early morning
  hours Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

It looks like snow should be falling over at least Ripley County
Missouri, as of 08Z. The snow will spread northeast across the
entire region by 8 AM. It will lose a bit of its intensity as it
moves across the Quad State, so snowfall totals will be greatest
in the far southwest and least in the far northeast. The overall
range is still roughly 4-7". The snow will taper off from west
to east across southeast Missouri this afternoon, and over the
rest of the area this evening, roughly by 9 PM.

Given the pre-existing ice loading from last weekend`s storm
over Perry county Missouri and likely other locales, the fresh
snow in those areas could result in more downed tree limbs and
power outages. The one positive with this storm is that winds
will be light today. Northwest winds will increase to 5 to 10
mph late this evening and overnight, but gustiness is not
expected.

Weak ridging aloft and south winds at the surface will allow
temperatures to climb up to near freezing Saturday, however the
fresh snow cover could hold temperatures down a bit more than
currently expected. A storm system will lift northeast from the
Plains Sunday through the Great Lakes Sunday night. Continued
southerly flow on Sunday will allow temperatures to climb above
freezing throughout the region. There should be decent melting
conditions Sunday. Unfortunately, a cold front will pass Sunday
night resulting in a downward trend in temperatures heading into
next week.

Another, larger storm system will push eastward across the Great
Lakes Monday night into Tuesday, and that will bring another
shot at some flurries and a reinforcing shot of cold air to the
Quad State. Much of the region will struggle to climb above
freezing Monday through Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night and
Wednesday night over the northern half of the region will be in
the single digits above zero, with wind chill values dropping to
near zero.

Surface high pressure will settle south of the Quad State by
Thursday and that will result in south winds developing and a
modest warming trend through next Friday. Highs Friday afternoon
may approach normal levels in the low to mid 40s over the
southwest half of the region. That might just feel tropical to
us by then!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

MVFR to IFR snow should prevail at all sites to start the period
and moderate/LIFR snow will develop later this morning and prevail
for most of the day. A few periods of heavy snow are possible.
The snow will taper off toward 00Z, but IFR ceilings will
prevail through the evening. Ceilings may lift to MVFR when west
winds develop in the late evening to overnight hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST /1 AM EST/ tonight for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS