238
FXUS63 KPAH 092152
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
452 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures expected through Friday, then a
  little cooler but still above normal next weekend.

- Chances of light rain return Wednesday night into Thursday.

- A strong cold front will bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, with
  a risk of strong to possibly severe storms and brief heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 446 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A surface low moving along the eastern Gulf Coast today will be
followed by a surface high that will remain over the Gulf into mid
week. Surface winds into tonight across our region will vary
between northeast to west/northwest, but the high to our south
will help shift winds to the southwest Monday. Southerly winds
can then be expected through the rest of the week, resulting in
a warming trend. Temperatures will be significantly above
normal through Friday with highs in the 70s. The southerly flow
will also result in gradually increasing dew points.

The first of two rain events arrives mid week. Models take an
upper level wave across the lower and middle Mississippi
valleys Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances of
showers will spread into southeast Missouri Wednesday evening,
then across the rest of the PAH forecast area late Wednesday
night, with some lingering light rain possible mainly Thursday
morning east of the Mississippi River. A few thunderstorms are
not out of the question near the Missouri/Arkansas border
Wednesday night. Rainfall with the system will be less than a
tenth of an inch, with the best chances of measurable rainfall
across southeast Missouri and west Kentucky.

A more significant system will arrive for late week. Models
bring a strong surface low into Kansas/Nebraska Friday, pushing
it into the upper Mississippi valley/western Great Lakes region
Saturday. The associated cold front will move through the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Saturday, with a pre-frontal
trof moving through late Friday into Friday night, which will be
the focus of more significant convection. Temperatures will
reach well into the 70s Friday, with dew points climbing near
to even a little above 60 degrees Friday into Friday evening
ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show mid level
lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km Friday afternoon into Friday night,
and precipitable water from near an inch to an inch and a half.
The overall setup looks good for some strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms, and it will continue to be something to monitor
this week. SPC already has the entire PAH forecast area in the
Day 6, 15% severe weather outlook, with this outlook area
encompassing an area from Louisiana all the way to southeast
Iowa.

As for rainfall, current forecast amounts from Friday afternoon
into Saturday evening range from around three-quarters of an
inch in the Ozark Foothills of Missouri, to 2 to 2.5 inches
across most of west Kentucky. With a prolonged primarily dry
period of a more than a week ahead of the system, even with
periods of heavy rainfall, these amounts should not cause
anything more than nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas.

Friday and Saturday will also be quite breezy with south to
southwest winds at 15-25kts with gusts of 25 to around 30 kts.
Winds will shift to the west and ease up behind the cold front
Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will be several degrees
cooler over the weekend, especially Sunday, but readings will
still be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Low pressure drifting across the Lower Mississippi Valley is just
far enough south so as to keep its associated clouds mostly
south of the terminals. Surface high pressure ridges in overtop
the flight zones in the wake of the aforementioned low.
Time/height cross sections show the column here is and will
remain very dry...so there will be little to no obstructions to
what will be a Visual Flight Rules forecast from beginning-to-
ending time this package. The high pressure ridge does shift
just far enough to the east over the course of the ensuing 24
hous to allow for a light return flow to develop over the back
half of the planning phase of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$