754
FXUS63 KPAH 032134
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
434 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend with an increase in humidity levels begins on
  Monday, with temperatures turning more seasonable by the
  middle of the week.

- Daily scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday
  and Tuesday before trending completely dry during the latter
  half of the week. Heavy rain and lightning are the main
  concerns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The weekend will end with pleasant conditions as sfc high
pressure begins to build east on Monday. The one caveat is
spotty rain showers across the Kentucky Pennyrile this evening.
A modest increase in moisture due to a 500 shortwave trough
leeward of the Rockies will support greater daily chances of
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially east of the
Mississippi on Monday and Tuesday. The main concern with storms
will be heavy rain and lightning, as the wind shear remains
weak with 1000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. The 12z ECMWF has trended more
towards the GFS with higher QPF further west between a tenth to
quarter of an inch with locally higher amounts. Pcpn chances
trend more sporadic Wednesday across the far east before ample
dry weather conditions settle over the FA Thursday into Friday
when a 597 to 600 dam ridge over the SW CONUS pushes the
shortwave trough more east.

Below normal temperatures in the low to mid 80s trend more
seasonable into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday before nearing 90
again next weekend. Meanwhile, morning lows will quickly trend
higher into the mid to upper 60s for most of the week, along
with an increase in humidity levels as dewpoints trend back into
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Despite the increase in heat and
humidity, heat index values only rise into the mid to upper 90s,
well below advisory criteria.

There are signs a more potent shortwave through may dig across the
the Great Lakes region early next week that could push another cold
front south with storm chances. The deterministic GFS has been the
most amplified while the ECMWF has trended in that direction on the
12z run. However, the GEFS/EPS are still more zonal and north,
indicating quite a bit of forecast uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

An inverted trof sets up across the flight terminals tonight, as
subtle upper height falls occur. The models suggest a warm
advective pattern with an increase in moisture from the
southeast tonight-into tmrw. The boundary allows for the
moisture pooling to develop into some showers/thunderstorms over
the back half of the forecast, with restricted bases/vsbys
impacting all flight terminals in probability or temporary
fashion.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$