087
FXUS63 KPAH 181042
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
542 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged duration heat and humidity will linger through
  Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index
  values ranging between 100 and 108 degrees through Tuesday. A
  Heat Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible; however, mostly dry
  conditions can be expected through the heatwave.

- A cold front will pass through on Wednesday allowing
  temperatures to fall back toward normal levels as scattered
  daily storm chances return for Tuesday night through Wednesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Upper-level ridging/high pressure will linger across the Quad State
region through Tuesday afternoon before finally beginning to break
down. This will keep thunderstorm chances limited to only isolated
(10-15%) chances during peak heating each afternoon through that
time period. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s under
the dome of high pressure with heat index values ranging from around
100 to 108 degrees through Tuesday. No changes were made to the Heat
Advisory with this forecast update.

The aforementioned ridge breaks down Tuesday night through Wednesday
as a cold front sags south into the area. This will bring a break in
the heat and humidity along with better chances for more widespread
showers and storms, especially Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. Heavy rainfall will be a threat with any storms and the area
is outlooked for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for that time
period. Temperatures for the end of the week will pull back to the
mid and upper 80s. The ridge does try to amplify briefly toward for
Thursday and Friday bringing temperatures back closer to 90 degrees.
Again that will be brief as a much deeper trough is set to drop into
the area next weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and lower
humidity. In fact, we may be trending below normal for next
weekend for a change!!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Patchy ground fog may linger for the first hour of this TAF
issuance; however, it will quickly burn off after sunrise. VFR
conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF issuance
with light wind. Additional ground fog may develop toward the
very end of the TAF issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC