985
FXUS63 KPAH 191109
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
609 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are
  forecast through Saturday with highs around 90.

- Patchy fog is possible early this morning and again late
  tonight across portions of the region.

- Better chances of showers and storms begin to arrive late
  Sunday into early next week along with near to slightly below
  normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

An upper level ridge will begin to build into the FA as a 500 mb low
digs across California. The synoptic amplification will eventually
translate to a return to more humid conditions by Friday through the
weekend as model guidance now shows dewpoints ranging from the upper
60s to lower 70s. MaxTs will also be unseasonably warm in the upper
80s to lower 90s. As a series of 500 mb impulses round the ridge, an
isolated shower cannot be ruled out Friday morning and again Saturday
morning, but overall most of the FA likely remains dry due to the
lack of forcing. The only other concern is for some patchy fog
early this morning and again late tonight.

By Sunday, model guidance is in good agreement in showing the
aformentioned 500 mb low ejecting across the central Plains. The
increase in PVA and forcing for ascent will mean a better chance of
showers and storms Sunday into Monday, but QPF amounts overall still
do not look terribly impressive to overcome the ongoing drought
conditions.

Uncertainty does begin to increase towards the middle of
the week with the timing of a cold front. The general consensus
among model ensembles is to dig a deeper trough across the central
CONUS that would push a cold front through sometimes in the late
Monday to Tuesday timeframe, resulting is a return to near to
slightly below normal temps. NBM currently has maxTs progged in the
lower 80s across the entire FA by Tuesday, but there is about a 6
degree spread among the box & whisker plots due to lower forecast
confidence. Another factor will be the potential development of a
tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. A few of the deterministic
models bring some of the tropical moisture towards the FA by next
weekend. Meanwhile, the mean on the ensembles would currently keep
any moisture suppressed to the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure in place across the Quad State region will allow
for good flying conditions. The exception will be some ground
fog late at night/early morning, but that will quickly burn off
after sunrise. Wind will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...KC