Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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262 FXUS63 KPAH 300646 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy and locally dense fog will be possible this morning and then particularly on Tuesday morning depending exactly on how quickly higher level clouds dissipiate. - Lower 80s returns to the forecast by Tuesday, then a cold front`s passage cools us into the 70s Wednesday, before more 80s return to finish the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Main concern for the next few hours will be for fog potential if we can get any consistent breaks in the mid and lower level stratus. If we are going to get significant fog formation before morning it appears most likely along the Pennyrile region where cloud cover has been less and dewpoint depressions are lower. This afternoon vertical mixing should break up the overcast some, particularly by the afternoon. It should be warmer than what we have seen the last few days. Fog potential looks a little better on Tuesday morning as there is a better chance that subsidence behind a shortwave trough over AL/MS/GA dissipates the residual stratus deck enough to get stronger radiational cooling. A predominantly dry cold front moves through Tuesday which should finally clear the region more definitively from the soupy mess of the remnants of Hurricane Helene. Humidity starts to return via some southwesterly winds by Thursday. The GFS is stronger with a trough and front that moves through Friday night into Saturday giving us very low-end precip chances. ECMWF members hold this off more til after the weekend. It looks relatively benign regardless, with just some subtle temperature differences the end result. We will see how it evolves this week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 The main focus overnight is low stratus clouds that will develop across the region. Model guidance has backed off slightly from the previous TAF update, but at least IFR/MVFR cigs & vsbys remain progged through early Monday morning, with LIFR cigs still possible mainly in the eastern terminals. While low stratus clouds is likely the main concern tonight, patchy fog still remains possible, especially across western Kentucky. Winds will remain light & variable. Drier air will result in a return to only MVFR cigs by mid Monday morning, followed by VFR conditions in the afternoon. As an upper level disturbance spins in the atmosphere, a few returning showers remain possible across the eastern terminals. Light N-NE winds around 5 kts are forecast. Mid level clouds will scatter out Monday night allowing for the boundary layer to decouple with calm winds. Model guidance is hinting at some fog potential towards the end of the TAF period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...DW