626
FXUS63 KPAH 191146
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather is expected at times this weekend, with
  multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
  area early this morning, then again tonight and Sunday night.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the
  best chance for severe over southeast Missouri Sunday evening.

- Warm and dry weather returns early next week, a chance of
  showers and thunderstorms will arrive for the latter half of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The region is stuck between a broad trough axis over the
intermountain west and ridging over the northeastern Gulf this
morning. Quite a bit of heat and moisture have moved in on the
southerly winds ahead of the trough and temperatures are in the
70s tonight with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Warm- air/moisture
advection continues this morning but it is modest and model
soundings show about 100-150 J/kg of MLCIN despite the heat and
moisture due to poor low level lapse rates. Suspect the
convection to the northwest is or is becoming mostly elevated
rooted instability at around 700mb. It may start to work into
our area by about 3-4 am but despite ample shear the severe
weather risk appears low with nothing to really change our
stable layer at the surface overnight.

Surface front to the northwest stays mainly to the northwest
through the day with some shower and thunderstorm chance
persisting. A shortwave approaches tonight that looks to spark
another round of increased coverage over showers and storms.
Thermodynamics are marginal still but shear will become
increasingly sufficient for some severe risk through the evening
but it does not look overly impressive.

The broad trough gets kicked into a negatively tilted shortwave
trough Sunday evening. Shear increases markedly as the
previously stalled front shoots off to the east. Most available
guidance mixes out our dewpoints into the low 60s during the day
Sunday and we don`t recover through strong advection until
surface winds shift to the southwest. This leads to convection
holding off until just before FROPA when hodographs are
straighter. If low level moisture overachieves a more favorable
severe weather setup may emerge, and we will be close to one in
our western counties - but for now the peak definitely looks to
be to our west. However the risk is enough to continue to
monitor as the event approaches. Brief heavy rain can be
expected with forecast PWATs 1.7-1.9 inches but the system
should be progressive enough to prevent flooding even in our
currently saturated systems.

A disorganized pattern of shortwaves then impacts the region
Wednesday through the remainder of the week. The waves are
subtle and the impacts different between ECMWF/GFS members.
General thunderstorm chances appear with fairly strong
instability at times as dewpoints work into the upper 60s. There
are some signals for moments of better shear, but from the 00z
guidance suite I don`t see anything just jumping out that looks
like an organized severe weather threat, but of course tis the
season for that sort of thing still for another month or two.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A leading line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
lift northeast impacting KCGI, KMVN and KEVV through 15Z. MVFR
and brief IFR conditions are possible, with MVFR ceilings
settling in behind the line for most of the day. The line is
expected to weaken or dissipate before reaching KOWB and KPAH
this morning. Wind direction will be in flux with an outflow
boundary likely to pass all sites, leaving light and variable
winds behind it for the remainder of the period. Another round
of convection is possible overnight, especially at KCGI and
KMVN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS