347
FXUS63 KPAH 222216
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
416 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The cold starts to moderate today, temperatures back to around
  normal by this weekend and into next week.

- Dry till Sunday evening when some energy passes to our south
  and could bring some light rain or snow.

- Another system is on the horizon late in the forecast on
  Wednesday next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Updated Aviation Discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Today sfc high pressure shifts to the east as a shortwave trof aloft
approaches the area tonight. This is set to bring a cold front
through the area tomorrow and we could squeeze out a few flurries up
north overnight as the lower cigs move in ahead of the front.
Tomorrow`s temperatures will be in the 30s for the most part as
the front comes through. Behind the front Thursday night lows
will be in the single digits and teens again.

Friday will be a slightly cooler day with highs in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. A secondary trof swings through aloft on Friday then we
enter a more zonal flow regime as the pattern shifts. Temperatures
then moderate again and come back up to around normal this weekend.
This weekend we are in zonal flow aloft and a minor southern stream
packet of energy swings through to our south and brings some light
PoPs Sunday evening and overnight (mainly in the GFS). Majority of
the moisture stays south of us, but we could see some light rain
that then turns to snow or a rain/snow mix and then clears up by
Monday morning.

By Wednesday a southern stream closed low moves over the Four
Corners region and we enter slight southwest flow aloft. Energy just
ahead of this system brings some small PoPs back Wednesday
afternoon. Looking beyond, ensemble clusters are in surprisingly
good agreement with this closed low system. Any discrepancy seems to
be with the height of the ridging behind it and the northern stream
heights on top and ahead of it. This would affect the track of the
low and whether or not it holds together as it moves
east...something to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A cold front approaches tonight and makes passage tmrw. Mainly
VFR bases will accompany its approach, but MVFR CIGS become
predominant upon its arrival and passage. During the planning
phase of the forecast, the reinforcing cold/dry air behind it
funnels across the terminals...but it may take a few hours to
disperse the lower based clouds, so we left CIGS prevailing til
next issuance. The chance of a few flurries being squeezed out
with its passage is not zero, but low enough to preclude from
mention this writing. Southerly component winds veer til fropa,
then shift to northwesterly after fropa/tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$