217
FXUS63 KPAH 021122
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small rain chances exist mainly across west Kentucky this
  afternoon. Additional chances will be possible across most of
  the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again late
  Friday into Friday night. Unfortunately, amounts will be
  light (0.10-0.25" at best) and likely won`t help with our
  worsening drought situation.

- Multiple frontal passages late in the week will lead to
  reinforcing shots of cool fall-like temperatures. Highs in
  the 70s are likely on Thursday and appear increasingly likely
  again next weekend after a brief warm-up on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Large scale pattern features troughing across the eastern and
central CONUS which will become quite amplified by Thursday into the
weekend as energy dives south out of Canada and develops a deep
upper low over the Northern Great Lakes. Before this happens, we
have a little wave aloft that will slide across KY/TN this afternoon
and should ignite isolated to scattered convection. The signal for
this is greatest to the east and south of our cwa. However, parts of
west KY may experience some of this activity, with the Pennyrile
region the most favored. Soundings show boundary layer mixing
advecting dewpoints down through the 50s this afternoon. Could see a
bit of an inverted V look which could allow some gusty winds to mix
down to the surface with a storm or two. MUCAPE struggles to reach
much more than 1000 j/kg though so nothing to write home about.

As the aformentioned energy dives south of Canada, a strong cold
front will plow south through the Midwest and into our cwa Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Most guidance spits out at least some
light QPF with it, but again nothing very impressive, and many areas
may not see much at all. A secondary, more definitive front, will
sink southeast through the region on Friday into Friday night. This
will present another chance for some light rain. Recent ECMWF and
it`s ensemble seem a bit aggressive with the overall scope of its
QPF of 0.25-0.50", but one can hope dream. DESI LREF probabilities
for 0.50" are only in the 20-30% range through Saturday, which even
that seems a bit generous. Figure most areas will be lucky to
receive a tenth or two, with others not even that fortunate, and
only a select few that receive over 0.25".

Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s the next couple of
days. Behind the first frontal passage highs likely will reside in
the 70s on Thursday. A brief warm-up back into the 80s is expected
on Friday, before the secondary cool down occurs in time for the
weekend with highs once again dropping into the 70s. Lows over the
weekend should drop well down into the 50s and a few northern
locations may flirt with some 40s again.

The overall pattern doesn`t seem to be changing much, with a
continuation of largely drier and cooler conditions for the
foreseeable future. We may see a bit of an uptick in temperatures
through the 80s early-mid next week ahead of a potential weakness in
the flow aloft that develops over the Southern Plains. This may
allow additional rain chances to return by Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week, but there remains a good amount of model variability with
this.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Mid cloud will continue to stream across the region today. A
few showers and possibly an isolated storm can`t be ruled out
this afternoon across west Kentucky, with KOWB the most likely
terminal to see anything. NNE Winds will remain light through
the day, generally 4-6 kts at most, and then become calm
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP