315
FXUS63 KPAH 120737
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
237 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today, with
  decreasing coverage this evening, and dry conditions returning
  late tonight.

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms will redevelop in the heat
  of the day Tuesday, with the best chances east of the
  Mississippi River.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will return Thursday
  afternoon into Friday, with on and off chances continuing into
  Saturday and Increasing on Sunday.

- A warming trend can be expected through the work week, with
  the warmest conditions on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected
today across the entire PAH forecast area as a low pressure
system moves north through the lower Mississippi Valley.
Activity will peak during the afternoon with chances at 60-70%.
Coverage will quickly decrease through the evening hours due to
the loss of heating, with mainly dry conditions late tonight.
The low will be moving east of our region Tuesday, and showers
and storms will redevelop in the heat of the day, with the
highest chances/best coverage east of the Mississippi River.
Convection will again fizzle out by the end of the day. A few
mainly afternoon showers and storms are possible Wednesday from
southwest Indiana into portions of the Pennyrile region of west
Kentucky.  Dry conditions can be expected Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

A warm front will lift northeast through the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Thursday. Isolated showers and storms
are possible Thursday afternoon in mainly southern Illinois and
southwest Indiana. The model blend continues isolated to
scattered showers/storms Thursday night, then chances increase
Friday afternoon into Friday night with the approach and
passage of a cold front. There is some potential for severe
storms with plenty moisture and instability both days, but
forcing will be limited, as evidenced by the overall low
chances. There are also some continued model timing discrepancies,
so this will be something to monitor over the next few days.

Models show the frontal boundary meandering southeast of our
region Saturday, then lifting back north as warm front late in
the weekend. This keeps 20-30% chances of showers and storms
across the southeast half of our area Saturday, with a lull
Saturday evening, then chances increase from southwest to
northeast late Saturday night and especially Sunday.

We will see a warming trend through the week, with the warmest
and most humid conditions Thursday south of the warm front with
increased southerly winds. High temperatures by Thursday will
be around 10 degrees above normal in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees, with dew points climbing to around 70 degrees.
Temperatures over the weekend will be cooler but still above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
across the TAF sites today. Through 12z, VFR conditions away
from SHRA/TSRA will lower to MVFR cigs and periods of IFR cigs
with convection, along with drops to MVFR vsbys. MVFR cigs will
then become predominant after 12z-15z, with periods of IFR in
heavier SHRA/TSRA, and continued periods of MVFR vsbys.
Conditions will improve to VFR after 00z with
isolated/scattered convection. Winds will be light and variable
to east/southeast at 5-10kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST