717
FXUS63 KPAH 071101
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
501 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will end later this morning with another
  quarter to a half an inch of rainfall possible across
  portions of western Kentucky as a front pushes south.

- Drier and cooler weather to end the week will be followed by
  unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend into next week
  that will run 5-10 degrees above normal.

- A disturbance will bring another round of unsettled weather
  Saturday into early Sunday. Up to 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Sfc convergence associated with a stationary frontal boundary has
caused an uptick in scattered rain showers this morning, especially
across western Kentucky. Another 0.25 to 0.50 inches of QPF is
possible before pcpn tapers off around 15z as the boundary pushes
south. Meanwhile, the synoptic flow aloft will remain highly
amplified as a 500 mb low is located over the SW CONUS with upper
level ridging over the FA. Anticyclonic flow associated with a 1024
mb sfc high pressure tonight into Friday will lead to drier and
cooler conditions with northeast flow. MaxTs today and Friday will
range from the low to mid 60s with minTs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The pattern quickly turns unsettled again to start the weekend on
Saturday as the aformentioned 500 mb low ejects across the central
Plains. In the wake of another front, widespread shower and storm
chances ramp up Saturday into Saturday night, and linger into
Sunday. The 0z GFS is more progressive compared to other
deterministic models which hold off pcpn until the latter half of
Saturday. Model guidance also now shows a sharper gradient in QPF
with 0.50 to 1.00 inches across southern Illinois and 1.00 to 2.00
inches further southeast across the remainder of the FA. NAEFS
ESAT`s show PWAT`s rising into the 99th percentile around 1.75
inches supporting the potential for locally heavy downpours. WPC
maintains a marginal risk in their latest ERO. With that said, a
warming trend will lead to a return of above normal temps with maxTs
in the low 70s across much of the FA by Sunday.

While next week starts off dry, model ensembles are generally in
good agreement in showing a trough digging across the Midwest by
Wednesday. This may bring our next chance of stormy weather,
followed by a much colder airmass in the latter half of the week.
Unseasonably warm conditions prevail with maxTs in the mid 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Widespread MVFR cigs remain in place across most terminals this
morning. Scattered showers and embedded rumbles of thunder are
causing intermittent IFR conditions mainly at KPAH, but will
quickly diminish after sunrise. MVFR cigs gradually scatter out
later today, but low VFR cigs may linger into tonight. Winds
will be NE between 5-10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW