401
FXUS63 KPAH 142322
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure keeps us dry and seasonally mild for the rest of
  the work week.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances are high Saturday and into
  Sunday and may include a risk for strong or severe storms
  Saturday afternoon-evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Warm and dry weather under an omega blocking pattern is expected
to continue through Thursday. Starting Thursday night a number
of shortwaves then move towards and through the region. An
initial closed low over the western Gulf moves overhead
Thursday night. Moisture return along and ahead of this trough
is very limited and conditions look to remain dry. Friday the
troughiness/storminess currently tormenting the Pacific coast
moves towards the area and a low level flow switches to the
southwest. Moisture return does get going with this feature with
dewpoints rising into the upper 50s Friday and into the mid 60s
Saturday.

By Saturday morning low-layer warm advection and jet level
ascent starts to move overhead. Most guidance starts to develop
showers and thunderstorms by midday with coverage maximizing in
the evening before a sharp cold front moves in behind the
trough. Mid-level lapse rates are fairly poor which yields weak
instability (200-400 J/kg MLCAPE). Deep layer shear is fairly
good, and low-level shear remains modestly supportive of some
wind/hail/tornado threat. I think the lack of destabilization
may win the battle, especially if rain starts early in the day,
which it looks like it will, but we will have to continue to
monitor. CIPS/CSU severe weather analysis is showing just a
little bit of a signal and SPC continues to highlight much of
the area in the Day 5 severe weather outlook. PWATs increase to
about 1.7" by late afternoon with mean model precip around 1 to
1.5 inches total. There would be some risk for flash flooding
but given antecedent ground conditions it too would probably be
mitigated. The main impact will likely be rain and thunderstorms
threatening numerous outdoor events planned this weekend.

GFS/ECMWF guidance then differs in the handling of a trough
behind this one, with the ECMWF still holding on to a little bit
of another shortwave through early next week. The new GFS seems
less enthused about it and the associated moisture return. Both
look less impressive than they did 24-48 hours ago with it.
Temperatures behind the Saturday cold front should be cooler,
with highs around 70 and lows into the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Mostly clear skies will prevail across the region tonight,
allowing for winds to turn calm. Shallow ground fog is possible
again, especially at KCGI after 9z. Winds on Wednesday will be
northeast between 5-7 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DW