658
FXUS63 KPAH 281630
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1030 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Warm and breezy conditions will continue today with heightened
   fire danger potential across portions of the Ozarks.

*  It will remain dry but turn much colder for this weekend.
   Temperatures will be up to 10 degrees below normal.

*  It will warm up again and turn unsettled next week. The best
   chance of stronger thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and
   evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Another warm and breezy day is on tap today, with highs ranging
through the 60s, even some 70 degree readings are possible in the
Ozarks. Winds will be breezy at 15-30 mph with higher gusts at
times, except perhaps a little lower in the Ozarks. This makes for
heightened but not headline fire danger in our counties in the
Ozarks, where local forestry officials state the ground fuels retain
some moisture from recent rains/snowmelt.

A dry cold front makes passage this evening as its parent trof
barrels height falls across the Ohio Valley. A CP airmass
infiltrates the FA in its wake, as surface high pressure ridges
overtop the region. A marked weekend cooldown follows, with highs
plummeting into the 40s and lows to the 20s.

Our next big system is incoming early in the new week with a
warming/moistening profile as the upper flow backs to SW. This
drives a couple of waves out the Plains and across the MS Valley,
with the 2nd such wave the biggie. Its main impact here will be on
approach Tuesday afternoon-evening, when strong to potentially
severe storms with locally heavy rainfall will be possible. There`s
a good 1.5 to 2.5 inch rainfall slated for the region as a whole,
with some potential for higher amounts, particularly over western
KY. We`ll have to watch that closely for Flood Watch headline
necessity, in addition so severe chances that might be more bullish
if they can shift northward a little with time. After the system`s
completed passage, we return to more seasonal temperatures to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1021 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Gusty southwest winds today will shift to the northwest this
evening through Saturday. Gusts could reach the 25-30kt range
this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through this
TAF issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KC