475
FXUS63 KPAH 030712
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
212 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mostly sunny conditions will continue today through
  the first half of the holiday weekend.

- Increasing heat and humidity can be expected for the 4th of
  July and through the weekend.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday
  afternoon, with an unsettled weather pattern persisting into
  the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A weak upper level disturbance is moving across the Ohio Valley
this morning with a few clouds on satellite imagery.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper 60`s to lower 70`s at
discussion time with nearly calm wind. Some patchy fog remains
possible through the morning. Upper level ridging begins to
build across the plains today before shifting east into the Ohio
Valley by the weekend. Dry conditions are expected across the
region through the holiday period and the first half of the
weekend. Temperatures slowly increase the rest of the week and
into the weekend with highs returning to the low to mid 90`s.

By Sunday upper level ridging begins to break down as lower
heights approach from the north and west. A surface high will
move east allowing for a return of southerly flow and moisture
back into the area. A front will approach from the west before
nearly stalling out across the region next week. This front and
further support from troughing aloft will bring an unsettled
weather pattern to the region. Severe weather chances look low
given the lack of shear. PW`s rise to around 2-2.1" next week
supporting the potential for some heavy rainfall but don`t see
any signals for a more heightened risk of flash flooding at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

KMVN already has an MVFR visibility in fog and that will
continue through the night. They are not likely to fall through
the cross-over temperature, so any lower conditions should be
shallow. Used MIFG to handle anything less than MVFR. Cannot
rule out similar conditions developing at KCGI and KPAH, but
KEVV and KOWB should remain VFR. KMVN may drop to MVFR levels
again by the end of the period, as well, but will not insert it
in the forecast at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DRS