416
FXUS63 KPAH 041046 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
546 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend with an increase in humidity levels begins on
  today, with temperatures turning more seasonable by the
  middle of the week.

- Daily scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday
  and Tuesday before trending completely dry during the latter
  half of the week. Heavy rain and lightning are the main
  concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

A fairly vigorous shortwave trough (by August standards) and
closed low is approaching from the northwest this morning. This
is leading to an area of high clouds roughly overhead and more
disturbed weather to the west. A weak inverted trough is spread
southeast of the shortwave over western Kentucky. The shortwave
is set to move over the region by 12 to 15z this morning, which
will be out of phase with peak heating. This should limit
coverage/intensity just a bit, but the combination of surface
heating and upper-level ascent should result in 40-50% coverage, focused
in the east, through the day today. Shear is very weak and
instability quite limited to severe risks seem low as do flash
flood risk with PWATs only 1.4 to 1.5." Dewpoints will work into
the upper 60s through the day.

This trough sticks around through Tuesday giving us scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. The trend does seem to be
towards drier conditions through the next several days with the
trough transitioning to a cut-off upper low. I`m not convinced
it will be quite as dry as the NBM suggests but the trend has
been for drier conditions with gradually warming temperatures.

By the weekend there is some hint at a slug of tropical moisture
moving in from the southeast. This will depend on what, if
anything develops off the southeast coast over the next week or
so. Heat index values start to creep up through the week but
peak values stay below 100 for the overwhelming majority of the
forecast area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Low cigs will remain a factor in the EVV to HVC corridor for the
next couple of hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
then forecast in the late morning and afternoon with higher
coverage expected east of the Mississippi River. Low cigs/fog
will be possible again tonight in the pre-dawn hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG