353
FXUS63 KPAH 081855
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
155 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant flooding continues across the area due to
  extremely high rainfall amounts experienced over the past
  week. Many rivers will crest in moderate to major levels, with
  a few near record levels.

- After near freezing temperatures early this morning, a chilly
  day is on tap today with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

- Rain chances return mid-week, primarily Wednesday night and
  Thursday. Overall amounts look light though, generally 0.25"
  or less for most areas which should be too low to
  significantly aggravate the ongoing flood situation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Its a deceptively chilly day today across the region despite
abundant sunshine. A surface ridge parks over our east tonight
giving us another shot as sub-freezing lows mainly in the
eastern third of the CWA. A shortwave pushes a surface low to
the north of the area tomorrow. Moisture return will be modest
but there will be at least a chance for a few showers and storms
as the system moves off to the southeast. Instability/moisture
look too limited for severe risk. A secondary trough sends a
reinforcing cold front through on Thursday. By this point a
little better moisture return has had time to set up and our
rain and thunderstorm chances are a little better. Surface based
instability never really sets up however and severe risk
appears low. Rainfall amounts should be small enough to prevent
significant aggravation of our ongoing flood situation.

The front cools our highs back into the upper 50s to low 60s
with lows falling into the mid 30s. That pattern stays in place
until Sunday-Monday when another shortwave stirs up south winds
that bring in additional heat and moisture. Another cold front
cuts through Monday giving us decent shower and thunderstorms
chances. The overall position of the upper jet doesn`t look
favorable for strong thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts again don`t
look particularly concerning and by then we will have had some
time to drain at least some of the current flood wave off.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Moderate
northerly winds will go calm overnight before switching to the
south on Wednesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ076>078-
     082-083-086-087-090-091.
MO...None.
IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /3 AM EDT/ to 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/
     Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for KYZ007-
     010>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG