299
FXUS63 KPAH 241122
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pattern change this week will bring below normal
  temperatures to the region. Highs will range from the middle
  70s to lower 80s with lows falling into the 50s (even upper
  40s in a few locations). A few record lows are possible.

- Much of the week will be dry, but chances of rain return to
  portions of the region later in the week. However, there
  remains fairly high uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

An expansive upper trough and region of cyclonic flow extends
from the northern plains and across the Great Lakes this
morning. A surface front is currently moving across the region,
with upstream observations showing dewpoints falling into the
50s behind the front. High pressure will spread south from the
plains and Midwest today offering continued dry conditions and
cooler temperatures. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to mid
80s by the afternoon. Afternoon mixing will allow for some
stronger wind gusts up to 20 mph to mix down to the surface.

We see cooler air filtering in by Monday and continuing through
much of the week associated with broad northwest flow aloft and
surface high pressure extending from the northern Plains and
into the Ohio Valley. Highs Monday and Tuesday will largely
remain in the mid to upper 70s, with only a slight warming trend
Wednesday onward. The surface high building over the region
will bring excellent radiational cooling conditions allowing
lows to fall into the 50s area-wide, with a few locations seeing
lows in the 40s. Early to mid week looks to remain dry given
high pressure in place. A passing disturbance is progged to
move from the plains Monday into Monday night. Precipitation
should largely remain south of the region but increasing cloud
cover seems probable with this system.

Late in the week troughing begins to move east with much of the
region remaining in northwest flow. A couple of disturbances
within this flow are progged to move out of the plains and
across the region, although uncertainty is still high at this
time on how these systems impact the region with precipitation.
As previous discussions have mentioned, southeast Missouri is
the most favored locations at this time to see some beneficial
rains should precipitation make its way into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Surface high pressure will quickly build into the region from
the northwest today. Northwest winds will pick up by the
mid/late morning and afternoon with some gusts up to 15-20 kts.
Skies will mostly be clear today, although some FEW diurnal
bases are possible mainly for MVN/EVV/OWB. Clear skies expected
tonight, with a decreasing winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD