242
FXUS63 KPAH 191706
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1106 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will occur in some areas this morning especially
  south of a Perryville Missouri to Evansville Indiana line. A
  minor accumulation of dry snow is possible.

- It will remain very cold through Tuesday. Lows tonight will
  be in the single digits, with wind chill temperatures from
  zero to 10 below at times.

- Temperatures will slowly moderate through the week, with our
  next chance of precipitation next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A long wave trof over the middle of the nation will slowly move
east over the next 48 hours. Early today, shortwave energy
within the trof will move across the region, resulting in some
light snow activity that may produce a minor accumulation
(mainly a dusting), especially south of a Perryville Missouri to
Evansville Indiana line. It should be a light dry snow, with
minimal or no impacts to travel anticipated. West KY is the most
likely area to see this play out, especially the KY Pennyrile
region.

We will maintain the Cold Weather Advisory for tonight for Wind
Chill temperatures from zero to -10, especially near and east of
the Mississippi River. We think at least a statement for the
cold is warranted over the rest of SEMO, given Wind Chill
temperatures are only a couple of degrees higher, (hard to
differentiate the effects of the cold and Advisory vs. no
Advisory with wind chills this low). But, gotta draw the line
somewhere.

The cold will hang around through Tuesday as a massive and
expansive high pressure system moves across much of the nation
especially from the Rockies to the East Coast. Temperatures will
moderate after that.

Multiple model solutions show a trof moving across the region
late Thursday into Thursday night, with light precipitation
possible. Model projections also suggest deep enough moisture
present for at least a chance of precipitation. Temperature
profiles offer a wintry aspect to the type should it happen.
For now, NBM PoPs are single digits with no suggestion yet of
this chance. We will monitor the trends for now given the
element of uncertainty.

The next bonafide chance of precipitation appears to be later in
the weekend when we should see a fundamental pattern shift, to
an evolving trof out west, and more of a southwest flow aloft
across our region with return flow established. A few more
aggressive model solutions seem to be driving the NBM PoP output.
So, overall confidence is still low that far out in time in
terms of how that will all play out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1104 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Winds
will be breezy today out of the north and northwest with gusts
to around 20-25 kts. Some scattered high clouds are moving
through the area and then skies will clear out.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Monday for MOZ076-087-111-112.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening to
     noon CST /1 PM EST/ Monday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Monday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...SHAWKEY