701
FXUS64 KOUN 161719
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

- Elevated to near extreme fire weather conditions are possible
  mid to late week, especially on Thursday.

- Slight risk of severe thunderstorms late Friday into early
  Saturday morning and a marginal risk late Wednesday.

- Widespread rain is likely this weekend with moderate to heavy
  rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

It will be windy and warmer today.  An upper ridge will continue to
build in overhead with increasing south winds bringing in a warmer
air mass.  Our area will see periods of clouds and sun with mid-
level moisture flowing through the ridge.  Temperatures will warm
into the lower to mid 80s which will be about 10 degrees above
normal for mid April.  Winds will be sustained 20-25 mph by late
morning with 30-35 mph gusts.  Surface moisture will also be on the
increase today and tonight advected by the southerly flow and
further enhanced by a strong nocturnal low-level jet which will be
sharpening up a dryline across the western panhandles.

There is also a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms later today
toward the early evening hours across parts of northern Oklahoma,
mainly northwest Oklahoma.  Although northwest Oklahoma should stay
capped during the afternoon hours, deep mixing into uncapped and
unstable air further west and closer to the dryline could see
convective initiation there with storms capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gust. Some of these storm cells could track
eastward into northwest Oklahoma as severe although could start
weakening as they encounter more stable air.  The severe risk across
our north will decrease late in the evening.  Additional elevated
convection from mid-level shortwaves moving through the ridge across
southern Kansas may also bring a few storms across northern Oklahoma
near the Kansas line overnight but these storms should stay below
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Persisting windy and hotter will be increasing fire weather
conditions on Thursday while becoming cooler Friday with storms
coming in during the latter half of the day.

Our warming trend will peak Thursday and will be feeling summerlike
with most areas west and north of the I-44 corridor heating up to
the lower 90s. However, not expecting to break any temperature
records. The aforementioned dryline is expected to advance across
the panhandles and punch into our western CWA during the afternoon.
The gusty southwest/west-southwest winds and hot temperatures will
increase the afternoon fire danger up to a Critical risk behind the
dryline where RH values may drop below to near 10% especially
northwest Oklahoma. Have expanded the current Fire Weather Watch
further south to Knox County Texas and further eastward across
northwest and parts of westcentral Oklahoma.  Northwest Oklahoma may
see some blowing dust coming off the higher plains in the afternoon.
It should remain windy Thursday night as the dryline retreats
westward.

An upper trough digging across the Southwestern U.S. will be
bringing our next large scale storm system through late Friday into
the weekend.  Not as hot Friday as overcast cloud cover spreads in
ahead of this system although still 80s or about 10 degrees warmer
than normal.  This system will be pushing a cold front and surface
low through as both ECMWF & GFS deterministic models in agreement
with the boundary moving into northwest Oklahoma during the
afternoon.  We could see our first round of thunderstorms firing up
by late afternoon in the moist and moderately unstable air ahead of
the surface boundary and low.  Although instability weakens
overnight, strong deep-layer shear with a strengthening low-level
jet may be sufficient to keep any storms organized and severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Areawide rain POPs into Saturday and much of Sunday as the upper
trough comes through.  Expecting the cold front to be pushing into
southeast Oklahoma during the afternoon where the moister and
unstable air will be.  As a result, will have a risk for severe
storms Saturday afternoon across southeast Oklahoma and perhaps a
couple of our north Texas counties but it will be dependent on where
the front will be.  The upper system finally moves out by late
Sunday.  A severe risk will also be possible across our far
southeast CWA through the latter half of Sunday morning should the
surface front have not already pushed through.  In addition to
thunderstorms and severe risks, this weekends storm system will
produce periods of moderate to heavy rain showers at times with the
greatest rainfall accumulations up to 3-inches in areas near, south,
and east of the I-44 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Gusty south winds continue this afternoon. These winds will only
diminish slightly overnight across much of the area. Even with
the gusty winds overnight, strengthening LLJ will result in LLWS
at most sites. South winds will increase again Thursday morning. A
brief window of MVFR ceilings are possible at DUA shortly after
sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  64  89  66 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK         83  61  94  64 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  86  63  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           85  59  94  55 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     81  63  91  66 /  10  20   0  10
Durant OK         80  62  84  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014-015.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30