844
FXUS64 KOUN 241103
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
603 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

 - Increasing rain chances this afternoon and especially evening
   across the north.

 - Widespread, heavy rainfall increasingly likely early this week
   with another round of potentially heavy rainfall late in the
   week.

 - Cooler weather arrives Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

There is a signal in many of the models of convection developing
in western Kansas this morning within a moisture axis and some
developing isentropic lift on the 300K/305K surfaces. This
convection is progged to move toward northwest Oklahoma. These
storms may train along a north-northwest to south-southeast
oriented line. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in areas
where there are training storms. Instability is not expected to be
too high with a mid-level layer of high RH and nearly moist-
adiabatic lapse rates, but will still be enough in northwestern
Oklahoma for the potential of isolated strong or possibly severe
storms in an environment with stronger deep-layer shear than we
have seen for a few days. With dewpoint expected to be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s, low
levels will be dry enough to support thunderstorm wind potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Precipitation is expected to become more widespread tonight as a
shortwave approaches the area, and convection that develops over
the central High Plains this afternoon moves toward the area.
Again heavy rainfall will be possible, but would be more
widespread, especially across northern Oklahoma. A Flood Watch may
be needed beginning tonight (or even potentially late this
afternoon). Some of the higher model QPF forecasts (GFS, HRRR,
high-res NAM, ARW) show 2 to 3 inch bullseyes somewhere in
northern Oklahoma between 00Z and 12Z tonight, although there may
be some convective feedback issues contributing to these very high
amounts as well. This convection looks to linger into the day on
Monday with locally heavy rainfall potential continuing.

Thunderstorms continue Monday night into Tuesday with both
propagation and redevelopment of the storms over Oklahoma, but
also storms moving in from the upslope development on the eastern
New Mexico Plains. There looks to be a west-east band of the
highest precipitation potential, although the location of this
band is somewhat uncertain given the timing/evolution of the
propagation in Oklahoma but also where the strongest upslope flow
develops over the New Mexican Plains. The model consensus is for
the most widespread area to be farther south than some of the
previous forecasts, but that is still in question. There looks to
be a relative lull in the precipitation chances Tuesday night
before we see higher chances again mid to late week.

We will finally experience the cooler temperatures that have been
advertised for a few days. Although the location of the daytime
convection and cloud cover will affect who sees the coolest
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A series of mid-level waves ride over the ridge over the western
United States in the middle to later part of the week with each
bringing the potential for precipitation development. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in areas that get
multiple rounds of storms and heavy rainfall over the period. The
highest chances of rain will be across northern Oklahoma given the
forecast stronger mid-level flow in the north. There are more
differences late Friday into Saturday with the forecast upper
pattern with the operational GFS breaking down the ridge over the
Colorado Plateau allowing waves to approach from the west and
keeping precipitation chances higher and farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

While VFR category is expected initially during the period,
lowered category (mainly MVFR) conditions will spread northwest-
to-southeast towards the end of the valid period. Scattered
showers and storms are expected for much of the day across
northwestern Oklahoma/KWWR, with the most concerning potential for
reduced category and gusty winds occurring after 20-21 UTC this
evening.

Coverage of precipitation/thunder is expected to increase with
time early Monday morning. Low cigs are also expected to emerge in
a post-frontal airmass, though the brunt of this impact may focus
at/after the 12 UTC period on Monday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  66  74  62 /  10  30  50  60
Hobart OK         93  67  82  63 /  10  30  30  50
Wichita Falls TX  92  71  90  67 /   0  10  10  20
Gage OK           85  60  71  58 /  40  70  70  70
Ponca City OK     86  62  68  59 /  10  60  80  50
Durant OK         95  71  91  68 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09