639
FXUS64 KOUN 081702
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1059 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

- Accumulating snow is forecast Thursday/Friday, with the highest
confidence across southeast Oklahoma.

- Greater uncertainty exists regarding snowfall accumulation across
central, western, and northern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

- Temperatures should moderate back to near normal by early next
  week with dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

High surface pressure settles in across our area as winds will be
going light and variable.  Temperatures will be slightly warmer
today as pressure heights rise with a building upper ridge to our
west. The freezing line for this afternoon will be further north and
east than yesterday stretched across a couple of our counties
bordering the Kansas state line in northcentral Oklahoma.
Temperatures across the rest of our area expected to warm to 40
degrees with negligible wind chill values. As the surface high
settles off to the east and a lee low develops to the west, south
winds will increase tonight producing wind chill values ranging from
the mid teens to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Still confident of winter weather coming in on Thursday into early
Friday as well as southeast Oklahoma being the most impacted with
the highest snowfall although total accumulations are trending
lower. The closed upper low in the southerly jet flow over the Baja
Peninsula & Gulf of California still expected to open and phase in
with the trough in the northerly jet flow, although deterministic
models continue to slow it down until after the precipitation nearly
exits our area.  Although the northerly trough still expected to
move the cold front through Thursday evening and overnight with
additional ascent in the mid-levels through the southerly trough for
precipitation, overall preciptable water is a bit drier across our
area as per the NAM & GFS solutions which may account for lower
snowfall amounts than previous runs. DESI Grand Ensemble still
projecting 70-80% probabilities for 3-inches or greater snow
accumulations across southeast Oklahoma to a 50% probability for 5-
inches with NBM in the 3 to 4-inch range which still meets the
criteria for heavy snow in our current Winter Storm Watch area.

Areas east and south of I-44 to the watch area could still see 1-2
inches of snow with ensemble probabilities up to 70%,  Our remaining
areas west and north of the I-44 corridor are likely to see below an
inch of snow.  Although snow is still expected to be the primary
wintry precipitation type, can`t rule out a brief changeover to
sleet before returning to snow in a broad area generally east and
south of I-44 late morning Thursday. Slightly warmer air coming up
from a low-level jet may induce a brief warm nose for partial
melting aloft then refreezing. Expecting the snow to be mainly
affecting southeast Oklahoma by early Friday morning before exiting
around sunrise.  With a potential snowpack and being post-frontal,
did trend slightly cooler than NBM for Friday afternoons MaxT using
the CONSRAW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Still seeing an upper longwave trough pattern across the entire
country this weekend pushing another cold front across our area
Saturday night into Sunday.  Not seeing any strong cooling behind
this front as the air mass will be more Pacific Northwest based as
daytime temperatures will gradually warm more closer to climatically
normal (upper 40s to mid 50s areawide) with subfreezing nights into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions expected to continue this afternoon and through the
night tonight before storm system brings snow, lower ceilings and
visibilities to the area. MVFR ceilings likely to develop between
12Z and 15Z Thursday morning and will likely drop to IFR after
current forecast time frame. Light northwest winds will shift to
the south around 00Z this evening and remain from the south
through 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  24  35  26 /   0  10  60  20
Hobart OK         40  24  38  26 /   0  10  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  39  26  37  29 /   0  10  60  30
Gage OK           40  23  38  20 /   0   0  20  20
Ponca City OK     32  20  38  25 /   0   0  30  30
Durant OK         39  25  34  28 /   0   0  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning
     for OKZ032-041>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30