505
FXUS64 KOUN 211125
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

 - Low rain/storm chances return to northwest Oklahoma the latter
half of the weekend.

 - Widespread rain/storms and much cooler temperatures are
   possible early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Today`s weather will feature highs in the low to mid 90s with light
winds and mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will be in the mid to
upper 60s. A few CAMs hint at some widely scattered convection this
afternoon in our southeast counties, but chances are low (10%).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Friday and Saturday will be dry with seasonable temperatures again
as we continue between systems. A cold front will enter the area
Saturday afternoon, though its affect on temperatures will be
delayed. Low chances for rain nudge into northern Oklahoma behind
the front Saturday night.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Sunday will see slightly lower temperatures in the north behind the
front as well as lingering low chances (10-20%) for showers and
storms across parts of northern Oklahoma.

As the ridge flattens, a series of shortwaves will bring more
widespread showers and storms and much cooler temperatures early
next week.

Ensemble spread for maximum temperatures increases
significantly on Monday for most of the area (Tuesday for south
central OK and north TX) with interquartile ranges of 10 to 15
degrees (interdecile ranges of 15 to 25 degrees). Exact temperatures
will depend on the timing / strength of cold fronts as well as the
effects of cloud cover / precipitation on temperatures.

Spread in 72 hour rainfall amounts is equally high with 25th
percentile amounts ranging from a tenth to a half inch (higher
amounts in northern Oklahoma) and 75th percentile amounts exceeding
2 inches across much of the area.

As you make plans for next week, we recommend paying close attention
to probabilistic forecasts and taking deterministic forecasts with a
grain of salt.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the period.
A light northeast breeze and scattered diurnal cumulus will be
noted throughout the day today. Have added a PROB30 mention at
KDUA for shower/thunder chances during the afternoon, though
anything beyond very brief vis reduction remains unlikely.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         95  68  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           92  64  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     91  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         92  71  93  69 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09