949
FXUS64 KOUN 301132
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Showers and storms are widespread just to the north in Kansas, and
again it has been a mixed bag with the models on forecasting this.
Expect this activity to persist and likely spread south into
northern Oklahoma this morning. Meanwhile, as the front sinks
south slowly Sunday, models in general show little CIN near the
front by early to mid afternoon. A lot of models do show showers
and storms redeveloping through the day. The NBM POPs seem a bit
low for today with both scenarios and have increased POPs for
today. There is enough instability forecast for some strong
storms late this afternoon and this evening.

Somewhat cooler air (well, at least it is not as hot) will filter
into northern Oklahoma, and warming will also be reduced by the
clouds and expected precipitation today across the north and
portions of central Oklahoma. But it still looks to be hot again
in southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Heat Index values will again
be near or above 105 across southeast and south central Oklahoma
and north central Texas today and have issued a heat advisory for
today in these areas.

The showers and storms may linger into the early evening hours
before dissipating.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For those who get a little relief from the heat Sunday in northern
Oklahoma, it is back to reality on Monday as front washes out/
lifts north and allowing the hot airmass to return, and we will
not have as many clouds tomorrow. So heat index values are
expected to be back over 100 degrees areawide with values at or
above 105 across the eastern two-thirds or so of the forecast area
where dewpoints and humidity will be the highest. And this heat
will persist at least through Thursday. But later in the week, the
ridge weakens and a mid-tropospheric trough moves across the
northern and central Plains which will give us a better chance for
precipitation and perhaps another front moving into the area late
this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Showers and storms across northern Oklahoma are expected to
continue for the next few hours, with redevelopment expected along
a cold front this afternoon across central Oklahoma. MVFR with
brief IFR ceilings are possible this morning in northern Oklahoma,
with mainly VFR elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  75  98  79 /  40  30   0   0
Hobart OK         96  77 101  80 /  30  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  78 101  81 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           87  73 100  77 /  30  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     86  72  98  78 /  40  10  10   0
Durant OK         97  76  98  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ031-032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08