122
FXUS64 KOUN 170018
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
718 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

 - Severe weather is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

 - Above normal temperatures will continue well into early next
week; cooler toward midweek

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Despite another front moving through our area today, clear skies are
allowing temperatures to climb above normal (low 80s to low 90s).
Storms (with severe potential) are expected to develop southeast of
our forecast area, and there is an outside chance one of these could
wander into the southeast portions of our forecast area between 4PM
and 8PM. Most likely solution, however, is for today to remain dry
across our forecast area.

Quiet night tonight with lows in the 50s (NW OK) to mid 60s (SE OK).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The severe risk ramps up Saturday afternoon and evening (2pm to
10pm) as a shortwave moves over the region. The major players will
be a dryline in our western counties, a warm front moving north to
near I-40, and a largely unstable and deeply sheared warm sector to
the east and south of these boundaries. Highest confidence will be
for storms initiating off the dryline in central Texas and moving
northeast through south central Oklahoma with primarily a large hail
/ damaging wind threat. There is a lower chance for storms farther
north, but these would carry some tornado risk (low risk) due to
potential interactions with the warm front. There is also some
uncertainty in where the two boundaries will land at initiation
time, affecting where the warm sector will be and where the greatest
tornado risk will be.

Another day of severe weather is expected Sunday as the main upper
low draws closer, sending another shortwave around. Sunday`s pattern
has a more classic May look with all hazards possible in the
afternoon / evening. The dryline will be the focal point, most
likely in western OK / western north TX (some uncertainty in
position) with scattered storms firing along and east of this
boundary Sunday afternoon then shifting eastward. A caveat to
Sunday: some models keep the mid level forcing further north. This
is a lower chance scenario but would result in only isolated (but
still significant) or no coverage.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Severe storms will remain possible Monday and maybe Tuesday. The
dryline will retreat some Sunday but then move east across portions
of the fa again Monday. A cold front then is expected to move across
the area Monday night into Tuesday. At upper levels, the trough that
remains over the western U.S. through the weekend will move east
into the Plains Monday into Tuesday providing some additional lift
to the area.

Storm development will once again be possible near and east of the
dryline Monday afternoon/evening. Storms will remain possible into
Monday night/early Tuesday as the front begins to move across the
area. The moist, unstable airmass will continue east of the dryline
and south of the front so the severe storm potential will continue
Monday into early Tuesday. All hazards will be possible. Additional
severe storms could be possible again on Tuesday but there is more
uncertainty and could be somewhat dependent on how things evolve
Monday night into early Tuesday.

The upper trough is expected to move east of the area Tuesday/
Tuesday night although a shortwave rotating around the backside will
drag a re-enforcing cold front across the area. Temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday are expected to be a little bit cooler with highs more
in the 70s to low 80s whereas over the weekend into Monday highs are
expected to be in the 80s and 90s.

With multiple days of severe storms possible, everyone needs to stay
weather aware through the weekend into early next week but not
everyone is going to see storms every single day. In other words,
some days will be dry for some. With some uncertainties in the
details, check the forecast for the latest information.

25/Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Light and variable winds this evening will shift toward the
east/southeast as a warm front lifts to the north. MVFR stratus is
likely across southeast Oklahoma (KDUA) and may extend as far
northwest as central Oklahoma (KOKC/KOUN) by tomorrow morning.

By tomorrow afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible across western north Texas into southern into central
Oklahoma. The most intense thunderstorms may produce large hail
and damaging wind gusts (PROB30s were included to account for
this).

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  59  86  66 /   0   0  20  20
Hobart OK         88  59  90  64 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  91  63  91  67 /   0   0  20  10
Gage OK           85  51  86  57 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     85  54  81  61 /   0   0  10  40
Durant OK         89  65  89  70 /  20   0  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10