044
FXUS64 KOUN 052346
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
646 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

    - Cold front comes through late tonight with cooler yet above
      normal temperatures Sunday to normal cool night temperatures.

- Hot and dry weather to dominate through next week

- Occasional elevated fire weather northern and western Oklahoma

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Current elevated fire danger risk across northwest Oklahoma will
decrease after sundown as winds weaken and relative humidities
recover/rise with nocturnal cooling.

Gusty south winds go light after sundown prior to our next frontal
boundary coming through late tonight.  An upper wave trough digging
across the U.S. Northern Plains & Upper Midwest Regions will be
pushing another dry cold front across the Central Plains this
evening and into northern Oklahoma early Sunday morning.  A Pacific
air mass with drier but only temperate cooler air will lag a bit
behind Sunday`s cold front.  North winds behind the front shouldn`t
be particularly strong and gusty, perhaps 15-20 mph. However NBM
default was a bit weak with the initial post-frontal wind speeds so
increased them slightly across western and northern Oklahoma using
the NBM 90th percentile winds.   Expecting southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas to remain pre-frontal at least early in the
afternoon so expecting a persistent forecast there with highs again
in the lower 90s.  Although far northern and northwest Oklahoma may
see a ten degree cooldown from today with mid-upper 80s highs, the
remainder of central and western Oklahoma may only see a degree or
two cooldown. Overall, Sunday afternoon temperatures will still
remain hot and well above average even behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

By Sunday night, the effects of the Pacific air mass will be felt
well across most of our Oklahoma area with temperatures dropping
into the lower to mid 50s.  With the cold front pushing through
northern Texas, the lagging Pacific air mass will be a bit weaker
near and south of the Red River into our Texas area where
temperatures may struggle getting to far below 60 degrees.  Did go
slightly cooler than NBM for Monday mornings MinT using the CONSALL.
Monday will be our coolest day yet still warm and above climatically
normal with widespread 80s for highs.  South winds return under a
persisting upper ridge with a daytime heating trend from Tuesday
through the end of the week although still fairly cooler nights.
Thermal ridging may be strongest across our western CWA with lower
to mid 90s highs generally west of the I-35 corridor with upper 80s
to the east. Friday could be our windiest day with a tightening
trend of the surface isobars and the return of a nocturnal strong low-
level jet on Friday morning. Also a big change in the upper flow as
the jet stream shifts further south with a large amplitude trough
off the Pacific Ocean coming onshore into the western U.S.  This
could affect our area late next weekend into the following week.

We still have no rain in the forecast through 7-days as the main jet
flow remains well to the north with weak surface moisture for
mixing. Although differing from the ECMWF and NBM, the GFS guidance
has been persistent over the last few model runs with a mid-level
shortwave digging through the ridge down the Central High Plains
into northcentral Oklahoma on Tuesday morning. No elevated
instability but weak ascent into mid-level moisture could result in
high-based rain showers although model forecast soundings this far
out suggest very dry air below the mid-levels to the surface. Due to
overall model inconsistencies and uncertainty for the lower levels
to saturate, confidence is too low for any POPs in the forecast.
However they are mentionable so will maintain 10% as a placeholder
in the POP grids for Tuesday morning should this trend change.  The
GFS repeats this for Thursday morning as well but will only mention
this in the discussion as a future trend to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

No significant aviation concerns are expected. Skies will be
mostly clear except for perhaps some afternoon cumulus again in
the southeast. A wind shift will move through the area Sunday
morning shifting winds to northeasterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  89  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         59  91  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  93  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     60  86  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         64  92  59  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26