833
FXUS64 KOUN 061110
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

- Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue through the
week.

- Hot and humid conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

As we start the new week, shifts in the weather pattern will be
subtle. A strong moisture plume continues over the I-35 corridor in
south central Oklahoma, yielding abundant cloud cover and isolated
showers/storms again this afternoon. We`ll see temperatures warm
into the low to mid 90s over the northwest half of Oklahoma where
more clearing is expected, while south central Oklahoma and north
Texas are more limited to the 80s.

A ridge is establishing itself over New Mexico putting us into
northwest flow. CAMs suggest a couple of potential complexes late
this afternoon and tonight. This afternoon would be storms
initiating off a front in southern Kansas, then pushing south into
Oklahoma through the evening (southward extent is uncertain, though
several models have storms reaching the I-40 corridor around mid
evening before dissipating). Then, overnight there is some potential
for a storm complex off the high plains to surge toward northwest
Oklahoma. Both rounds will carry some marginal severe risk
(primarily wind).

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Monday will largely be another repeat, with south central diurnal
storms and northern OK overnight MCS potential. Temperatures will
again tend to be at or just below normal (perhaps slightly lower
where cloud cover is more persistent and afternoon showers form).

Models are now showing a shortwave approaching on Tuesday, which
will enhance rain chances somewhat. Otherwise, the pattern continues
to look fairly similar.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

PWATs go down as we enter into mid to late week. Reduced cloud cover
will allow for temperatures to gradually warm (though the forecast
does appear to be coming in slightly cooler than previous runs).
Northwest flow will favor nocturnal storm complexes approaching
northern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

While not as widespread as yesterday/Saturday morning, low stratus
continues to slowly expand from western-north Texas into south-
central Oklahoma this morning. At least temporary MVFR category is
anticipated at most terminals along-south of the Interstate 40
corridor this morning, with IFR conditions possible across
western-north Texas/KSPS.

By late this afternoon, widely scattered convection is expected
to develop along a frontal boundary near the Kansas/Oklahoma
border. Low probability potential for thunder impact will
spread from north-to-south across the area through the evening.
Low vis/gusty and erratic winds can be expected if a thunderstorm
impacts a terminal.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  71  88  71 /  10  10  20  20
Hobart OK         92  70  92  71 /  10  10  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  88  71  89  72 /  20  10  30  10
Gage OK           93  66  90  68 /  40  30  10  30
Ponca City OK     91  70  90  71 /  20  20  20  20
Durant OK         89  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09