296
FXUS64 KOUN 091906
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
206 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 201 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

 - Low chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

 - Dry with very warm temperatures this week before rain chances
   return again towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

Another afternoon of moderate temperatures and plentiful sunshine
giving way to a thick cumulus deck. We expect to see a few showers
or weak thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly across south
central and southeast Oklahoma. Most people won`t see any rain at
all, and any showers that do develop will weaken quickly after
sunset.

Drier air filters in tonight, so lows will actually drop a few
degrees beyond what we`ve seen in recent nights. It wouldn`t be
surprise to see a few spots in north central Oklahoma make a run at
45.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

This weekend`s edition of The Season of the Cutoff Low features the
low reaching the apex of its southward drift to the Sabine Pass
region tomorrow night before lifting northward as the ridge axis
gets shunted eastward. Northeast flow aloft will shift to due
northerly which will continue to work to keep temperatures in check.
We have seen highs climb a little above NBM the last few days and so
far today looks to continue that trend. NBM can get caught up in
bias-correction purgatory, so temperatures may end up closer to the
upper-70s than the mid-70s. No complaints here. Rain chances also
look to remain low through at least early Sunday, when remnant
shower activity across eastern Oklahoma has a low chance of making a
run into our southeast Oklahoma counties.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025

By Monday, the cut-off low will start to be absorbed into the ridge
in the northern stream as another trough digs into the western
CONUS. Weak ridging aloft through mid-week ahead of the next wave,
which may bring a return to rain chances towards the end of the
week. Lee troughing will develop Tuesday and strengthen into
Wednesday with a return to southerly surface flow. Warm air
advection will give way to above normal surface temperatures rising
into the 80s and 90s by mid-week. Very warm temperatures aloft will
inhibit storm chances through much of the week. Timing, strength
and track of the next trough axis will play a key role in the
chances for storms to return to the forecast area towards the end of
the week and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025

Widespread broken CU will produce ceilings around 4000 ft this
afternoon as all terminals should remain under VFR conditions
through the forecast period. There is a 30% probability for
isolated -TSRA developing through 01Z across southeast Oklahoma
which may only impact terminal KDUA with brief reduced
visibilities in rain. Surface high pressure persisting across the
U.S. Great Lakes Region will maintain north-northeast surface
winds at 10 kts with 15-20 kt gusts across our terminals. After
01Z, surface winds will back slightly out of the north becoming
light. By 15Z, surface winds will veer north-northeast and
increase 10 kts gusting to 15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  74  50  76 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         50  76  47  76 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  76  50  76 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           47  79  45  78 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  78  49  79 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         56  77  53  75 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68