358
FXUS64 KOUN 101117
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
517 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

- Snow tapers off this morning, but hazardous travel will continue
today.

- Slowly moderating temperatures this weekend into early next week
  with dry conditions expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Snow is still being observed across much of the area, although
intensity continues to taper off as the storm system moves
eastward. Expect light snow/flurries to linger through about mid
morning across eastern parts of the area as the 700 mb
trough/deformation axis passes through, but we are not expecting
much in the way of additional accumulations with this activity.

Some of the highest snow totals in our area were found across south-
central and southeast Oklahoma, where as much as 8 to locally near
10 inches was measured. Elsewhere, a general 4 to 6 inches was
observed north and west of this area into central Oklahoma and from
there into northwest Oklahoma. Outside of these areas, across far
north-central and far southwest Oklahoma/western north Texas,
amounts were generally near or less than 2 inches.

Temperatures today will not move a whole lot due to a combination of
snowpack, northerly winds, and limited insolation due to clouds
(especially over central/eastern OK). Highs are expected to be in
the low to mid 30s, with readings approaching 40 degrees in our
far southwest. Lows tonight will fall into the teens across much
of the area as winds go light and snowpack remains. Will need to
watch for (freezing) fog development late tonight into Saturday
morning as many of the hi-res models hint at this potential,
although confidence on this scenario is not very high.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Winds will increase from the south on Saturday as a surface low
traverses the panhandles into southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas through the day. Combined with increased sunshine, melting of
the snowpack should begin in earnest. However, expect the melting
process to dampen the moderation in temperatures Saturday, with
readings likely remaining in the 30s for highs across much of the
area outside of our southwest counties. Temperatures will likely
only climb a few degrees further on Sunday with the snow continuing
to melt.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

As we head into Monday models disagree on whether or not the
moderating trend will continue or not. Some of the guidance brings
a reinforcing shot of colder air and northerly winds to the area,
while others bring the high pressure center more quickly to our
east and have southerly winds over most of the area by the
afternoon. For example, the spread between NBM 25th and 75th
percentile for high temperatures is nearly 10 degrees in many
locations leading to a low confidence forecast. Model spread
continues into the middle of next week, so while the overall
temperature trend should be upwards, the degree of moderation is
still somewhat uncertain.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Light snow continues this morning from PNC to FDR. This area will
continue to move slowly to the south and east, with some reduction
in visibility as low as 2-3 miles possible. Skies are generally
IFR at the moment, but as the snow moves out clear skies will
return later this afternoon and last through the night. North
winds at 10-15 knots will persist throughout the day and then
diminish and shift to westerly overnight.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  34  16  37  22 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         38  16  41  24 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  38  19  44  26 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           35  14  38  22 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     33  15  39  22 /  20   0   0   0
Durant OK         35  15  39  26 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for OKZ004-
     005-009>011-014-015.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     OKZ006>008-012-013-016>018-021>024-027-033>039-044.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ019-020-025-
     026-028>032-040>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     TXZ083>089.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04