856
FXUS64 KOUN 191054
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through Sunday.

- Severe weather risk this afternoon and tonight, mainly
  southeast.

- Heavy rainfall potential increases later today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning. The focus is
shifting to the east currently with as the low-level jet shifts
that direction. The cold front is slowing down, but continues to
slowly shift south. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop today
as isentropic lift above the frontal surface increases. The storms
will be most widespread in the southeast near the front, but
scattered showers and storms will develop farther north as well.

Late this afternoon and into tonight, showers and storms will be
fairly widespread and the potential increases for locally heavy
rainfall and perhaps training of storms. The area of the Flood
Watch was in generally good shape, although we added Marshall
County to the watch as the axis of forecast heaviest
precipitation shifted slightly to the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The mid-level trough moves northeast over the area on Sunday.
Showers and storms will still be widespread early Sunday as the
trough approached, and there is enough signal for wrap-around
precipitation that showers and storm chances persist into the
afternoon west of the trough axis into Sunday afternoon with the
showers/storms ending from west to east through the afternoon as
the trough moved into the Midwest.

Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with the widespread clouds
and precipitation, but southerly low-level flow redevelops quickly
Sunday night and early Monday with warmer and more seasonable
temperatures expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The next broad mid-level trough develops over the Western United
States early in the week, and a series of shortwaves are expected
to move toward the southern Plains in the southwest flow aloft
through the week. As these shortwaves eject toward the Plains,
areas of showers and storms will again affect the area as early as
Tuesday afternoon, with chances persisting through the remainder
of the week. Specific timing of the most widespread precipitation
may shift as we go forward as timing of individual shortwaves is
challenging this far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Storms continue in the far southeast portion of our area this
morning. For most other sites, the immediate aviation concern is
the development of low IFR stratus (and some haze/fog as well)
north of a cold front this morning. This stratus will last the
rest of the TAF period, with some locations pushing LIFR
conditions by tomorrow morning. The next round of showers and
thunderstorms will begin this afternoon and last through early
tomorrow morning. It will primarily affect southern and central
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  52  65  46 /  80 100  80   0
Hobart OK         61  48  65  44 /  60  90  70   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  54  69  47 /  80 100  40   0
Gage OK           52  41  61  41 /  40  90  90   0
Ponca City OK     57  50  65  42 /  80 100 100  10
Durant OK         75  62  73  50 /  90  90  80  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
     023>032-037>047-050-051.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04