163
FXUS64 KOUN 071115
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Episodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue this
  weekend. Severe weather is expected.

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible this
  morning. A Flood Watch is in effect until 12 PM Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A gradual weakening of a east-west oriented line of storms near and
south of I-40 is expected to occur this morning. By mid/late morning
most of the area is expected to be rain-free as most of the storms
dissipate or shift east of the area. Additional convection may occur
this afternoon along a weak surface front or affective outflow
boundary from the morning storms across southern Oklahoma southward
into north Texas. Instability and deep-layer shear will again be
sufficient for severe storms, along with some heavy rainfall. Flood
Watch continues through midday today. This activity will be slow to
shift south overnight and may linger into Sunday morning. Much of
the remainder of the area looks to remain dry Saturday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Daytime hours on Sunday should remain dry and very warm as front
lifts north through the area toward the Kansas border. This along
with a southward approaching cold front and associated upslope flow
will result in another complex of storms developing across the
higher terrain of southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas
panhandles Sunday afternoon. This complex will then propagate
southeast across the area Sunday afternoon and evening with hail,
damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.

Again expect a lull in the precip Monday in the wake of overnight
complex. Some afternoon and evening storms are possible late Monday
into Monday night across the Red River valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

As we go into Tuesday a bit of a split flow over the western part of
the conus with southern stream system moving through the southern
Rockies out into Texas bringing additional rain chances to mainly
southern OK and north TX. This system will then become closed off and
slowly lift north and northeast Wednesday into Thursday with more
widespread rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Storm coverage early this morning is limited to I-40 and south,
and that will continue to shift southward and taper off over the
next couple of hours. Behind the boundary, skies are largely VFR,
though a brief corridor of MVFR ceilings may develop close to
I-35 this morning. Winds are northerly immediately behind the
storm outflow, but it will wash out and light and variable winds
will prevail.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  67  90  65 /  70  10  20  60
Hobart OK         89  68  92  64 /  30  10  40  80
Wichita Falls TX  93  73  94  66 /  10  10  30  80
Gage OK           85  62  86  59 /  20   0  40  50
Ponca City OK     85  64  89  62 /  40   0  10  40
Durant OK         92  71  91  68 /  30  50  20  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ004>032-039>043-
     046>048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04