399
FXUS64 KOUN 011034
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
434 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 431 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Below normal temperatures and a chance for light wintry
   precipitation today. Little to no accumulation is expected.

 - Temperatures moderate Tuesday, ahead of a cold front that will
   bring colder weather late Wednesday into Thursday.

 - There is a chance for light wintry precipitation Thursday into
   Thursday night.

 &&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Numerous showers have developed across much of Oklahoma and north
Texas this morning within a zone of isentropic ascent/warm air
advection. The exception has been across far west central
Oklahoma.

These showers are producing a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain,
and sleet/ice pellets. These showers are not producing snow
because the activity is too shallow with the saturated layer
beneath the dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ), which is the layer
in the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12 to -18 deg C.
Precipitation amounts reaching the surface have generally been a
trace to a few hundredths given the light echoes and the dry
boundary layer/low-levels (i.e., some of the precipitation is
evaporating/sublimating before reaching the surface).

Where temperatures are above freezing (generally southeast of
I-44), the precipitation types are rain and sleet. Even though
surface temperatures are above freezing, the sleet/ice pellets
develop by water droplets freezing before reaching the surface.
Near the I-44 corridor, it`ll be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and
sleet (i.e., freezing rain where surface temperatures are below
freezing). The good news is this is not an environment that is
favorable for the development of freezing drizzle given the dry
low-levels. Instead, the scenario is (convective) showers. The
signal among the convective-allowing models indicate this as well
with a cellular structure in the precipitation. Even with the
absence of freezing drizzle, there is the potential for localized
slick spots on elevated surfaces where light freezing rain occurs.

Across northern Oklahoma, areas of light snow will develop with
ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The track of the
shortwave trough is unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with the
highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture is limited
with the system. There is a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall
accumulation near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Therefore, a trace
to only light accumulations are generally expected

The system will depart this afternoon with most locations
expected to rise above freezing.

Mahale

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Numerous showers have developed across much of Oklahoma and north
Texas this morning within a zone of isentropic ascent/warm air
advection. The exception has been across far west central
Oklahoma.

These showers are producing a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain,
and sleet/ice pellets. These showers are not producing snow
because the activity is too shallow with the saturated layer
beneath the dendritic snow growth zone (DGZ), which is the layer
in the atmosphere where temperatures are between -12 to -18 deg C.
Precipitation amounts reaching the surface have generally been a
trace to a few hundredths given the light echoes and the dry
boundary layer/low-levels (i.e., some of the precipitation is
evaporating/sublimating before reaching the surface).

Where temperatures are above freezing (generally southeast of
I-44), the precipitation types are rain and sleet. Even though
surface temperatures are above freezing, the sleet/ice pellets
develop by water droplets freezing before reaching the surface.
Near the I-44 corridor, it`ll be a mix of rain, freezing rain, and
sleet (i.e., freezing rain where surface temperatures are below
freezing). The good news is this is not an environment that is
favorable for the development of freezing drizzle given the dry
low-levels. Instead, the scenario is (convective) showers. The
signal among the convective-allowing models indicate this as well
with a cellular structure in the precipitation. Even with the
absence of freezing drizzle, there is the potential for localized
slick spots on elevated surfaces where light freezing rain occurs.

Across northern Oklahoma, areas of light snow will develop with
ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The track of the
shortwave trough is unfavorable for appreciable snowfall with the
highest chance across Kansas. In addition, moisture is limited
with the system. There is a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall
accumulation near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. Therefore, a trace
to only light accumulations are generally expected

The system will depart this afternoon with most locations
expected to rise above freezing.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday as mid-level heights rise
with a return to southerly winds. High temperatures Tuesday
afternoon are forecast to range from the upper 40s to mid 50s deg
F.

The warming trend will be brief as the the next cold front will
move through during the day Wednesday as a mid/upper-level trough
embedded in the polar jet stream amplifies across the Great Lakes
region. The amplifying trough will advance another cold front
southward across the Plains with a ~1036 mb surface high in its
wake. Similar to the previous cold front, the trajectory of this
air mass will be from Canada. Falling temperatures are likely
northwest of I-44 Wednesday afternoon with breezy northerly winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The cold front that moved through Wednesday will return us to
below-normal temperatures on Thursday with highs likely in the
30s and 40s deg F.

A wave in the subtropical jet stream may provide enough synoptic-
scale ascent for the chance for precipitation Thursday into
Thursday. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on
the strength of the wave and amount of precipitation. For
example, the latest deterministic guidance shears out/weakens the
wave substantially--which would result in a drier forecast. If
there is precipitation, there is the potential for a wintry mix
(depending on temperature profiles) across parts of the area.
Probabilistic guidance indicates a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of
snowfall northwest of I-44. The chance of 1" of snowfall is 10 to
20% across northwest into north central Oklahoma.

By Friday and Saturday, temperatures are expected to moderate with
a return to southerly winds. Another cold front is forecast to
move through late Saturday into Sunday, but the air mass behind
this front does not appear to be as cold as the previous two with
only a glancing blow for the Southern Plains.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Mainly VFR conditions , with some MVFR ceilings, are expected
through the period. Wintry precipitation is expected this morning
across central Oklahoma and portions of north central Oklahoma.
Light snow may impact north central Oklahoma later this morning
into the afternoon. Winds will remain light today, shifting from
the south to the north by the afternoon. Some MVFR ceilings are
possible across southern Oklahoma today as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  21  50  34 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         43  19  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  23  55  39 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           38  19  54  26 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     34  18  49  28 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         41  25  50  33 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
     OKZ017>020-023>030.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13