950
FXUS64 KOUN 131036
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
536 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

  - Rain and storms likely across the northwest half of Oklahoma
    Monday.

  - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions return Tuesday
    through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The initial upper wave that moved across the area Sunday afternoon
and evening has helped to moisten the airmass in advance of the main
storm system that will move northeast across the area later today.
This should result in numerous showers and even a few thunderstorms,
producing much needed rain across western into northern and perhaps
parts of central Oklahoma Oklahoma during the day Monday. This will
be in proximity to a slowly advancing cold front that has just
entered northwest Oklahoma early this morning.

Models continue to increase potential amounts and some areas may see
between a half inch and an inch or rain by this evening. Although
NBM continues to show this potential from west central into north
central OK, some of the individual model runs, such as the
operational GFS and ECMWF, are showing this band of heavier rainfall
a bit farther south, near of just north of the I-44 corridor.
Something to watch.

Otherwise, large temperature spread is expected across the area
today with much cooler temperatures behind the front and with the
extra aid of precip and cloud cover northwest Oklahoma may not get
out of the 60s this afternoon. Temperature forecast is a bit tricky
near the I-44 corridor where a lot will depend on the location of
the front or perhaps affective front (outflow boundary) and where
this potential band of heavier rain may occur. Meanwhile across
southeast Oklahoma temperatures will once again approach 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Frontolysis will occur tonight and shortwave trough will lift off
to the northeast, which will gradually bring an end to the precip.

South winds return to the area Tuesday with upper ridge beginning to
build back northward from the gulf, marking the return of very warm
and dry conditions for the middle part of the week. Afternoon
temperatures once again will warm well into the 80s areawide with a
few low 90s possible both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Begin to see the upper ridge shift eastward by Thursday as longwave
trough moves through the western basin and into the Plains. As this
occurs lee cyclogenesis takes place in the High Plains and south
winds will increase through the Plain states. The initial shortwave
embedded within the large-scale trough will lift well north of the
area through the northern Plains on Thursday and gulf moisture will
be restricted to near the south Texas coast. This will limit any
rain chances in our area.

As the upper trough to our north moves east the attendant surface
front will begin to push south into the area on Friday. Meanwhile,
low level moisture will slowly increase as south winds continue to
pull gulf moisture northward. So by late in the day Friday into
Friday night a few showers/storms may be possible mainly well in
advance of the surface front, where better low level moisture may
reside, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor.

Models still diverge by the weekend on how they handle the upper air
pattern and associated surface features, so forecast confidence
drops off by this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The next round of showers is currently developing across western
and central Oklahoma, and expect scattered showers through the
day. The highest chances will be across western and northern
Oklahoma while southeastern Oklahoma and north central Texas will
likely remain dry. A cold front extends from northwest of KPNC to
just north of KCSM this morning and will slowly move southeastward
today shifting winds from southeasterly to east/northeasterly.
Some MVFR (and locally IFR) conditions are expected with some of
the showers, and then tonight across portions of northern Oklahoma
as low-level moisture increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  65  86  61 /  50  10   0   0
Hobart OK         76  62  87  59 /  70  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  63  88  59 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  59  80  58 /  60  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     74  64  85  61 /  60  10   0   0
Durant OK         88  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...26