695
FXUS64 KOUN 010840
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
340 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

After a brief respite from the heat in northern Oklahoma
yesterday, we are back to the heat areawide today. The main
question is how much will dewpoints mix out across the west and
central sections of the forecast area. Dewpoints in the 70s look
to stay in eastern portions of the area, but a lot of the models
are mixing the moisture out with more veered winds and drier air
above the surface. NBM populated dewpoints on the high side of the
guidance envelope and given the tendency to keep somewhat higher
dewpoints last week, we will go with keeping the NBM`s higher
dewpoints at least through the central third of the area. This
gives us forecast heat index values of 105 or higher from roughly
Cherokee to Lawton to Frederick to Archer City and east, and have
expanded the Heat Advisory west to incorporate the remainder of
these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The heat continues for the next few days. Temperatures look to be
warmer Tuesday compared to today, but current indications are
dewpoints/humidity may be a little lower to somewhat counteract it
for heat index values. Overall, the heat continues through at
least Thursday.

As a mid-level trough moves through the northern and central
Plains and the mid-level high shifts east into the Southeastern
U.S., a front will move down through Kansas Tuesday and at least
approach the border or perhaps move into northern Oklahoma, and
there will be some potential of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday with this front in or just north of
the Kansas border. If the front does move into northern Oklahoma,
temperatures will not be quite as hot in the north on Wednesday...
but the rest of the area will still be hot. And the front will
wash out and/or lift back north Wednesday night. But a stronger
mid-level wave moves through the Plains later in the week and
helps push a cooler airmass down the Plains, and it currently
looks like the front should push through the forecast area Friday.
This will bring both higher chances of showers and storms and a
break from the high heat with temperatures currently forecast to
be closer to or slightly below the early July average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
East-southeast winds will gradually veer toward the south or
south-southwest and become gusty tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
back toward the south or south-southeast during the evening. Fair
weather cumulus is possible in the afternoon (~6000 to 8000 ft
AGL).

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  79 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        101  80 104  81 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX 102  80 105  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           99  78 102  72 /   0   0  10  40
Ponca City OK     99  79 102  77 /  10   0   0  20
Durant OK         99  78 101  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...10