818
FXUS64 KOUN 091935
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
235 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

- Warm weather and elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions
  are forecast starting Monday afternoon.

- Impactful weather day on Friday with critical/extreme fire
  weather and potential for damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

After a day of rather putrid sensible weather conditions, especially
along-south of the Interstate 40 corridor, much more pleasant
weather is present across the area today. Our previous weather
system continues to slide across ArkLaMiss this afternoon, being
replaced by an upper ridge across the Four Corners. Scattered
shower activity is now confined across the Ouachita Range, with
lingering cloud cover across far southern Oklahoma expected to
clear shortly. Upper-50s/low-60s with a light north breeze will
continue into the evening.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The beginning of a new work week will feature above-normal warmth
and dry conditions across the region. Lee cyclogenesis is expected
across the High Plains on Monday, in advance of an approaching
northern latitude upper wave. The combination of re-establishing
south/southwesterly flow and advection of a warmed/downsloped
airmass will yield temperatures 10-20 degrees above mid-March norms
by the afternoon (in the 70s to perhaps ~80-degrees across the
west).

A trailing surface front, associated with the aforementioned
system, is progged to enter the northern forecast area beginning
early Tuesday morning. The overall impact to sensible conditions
is expected to be limited, with temperatures running a few degrees
cooler and a north/northeasterly wind shift expected in the post-
front. Compressional warming ahead of this feature may foster
upper-70s to low-80s temperatures across the southern two-thirds
of the forecast area during the afternoon.

Given expected warm, dry and breezy weather each afternoon, areas of
elevated/near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast to
emerge. Concern on Monday will likely be confined to northwestern
Oklahoma, where winds will be breeziest and a lack of wetting
rainfall occurred with the Saturday system. Tuesday`s threat looks
to shift towards southwestern zones ahead of the front, where
temperatures in the 80s and minimum afternoon relative humidity
<20% are most likely.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Two storm systems appear primed to impact the region during the late
week, with Friday looking like a very impactful weather day across
the forecast area/Plains.

The first system will advance out across west/central Texas during
the day on Wednesday. Expectation is for a Pacific Front to reside
near the Interstate 35 corridor by the evening hours. The
trailing airmass if forecast to be quite dry (relative humidity
near and less than 20%) and windy (westerly gusts to 25-30 mph).
In concert with multiple preceding days of drying across southwest
Oklahoma and western-north Texas, elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions are forecast during the afternoon/evening. A
relatively dry return flow pattern is currently expected ahead of
the front across Oklahoma such that precipitation chances are
very low (20%) and focused across far southeastern portions of the
state.

A much stronger (potentially anomalously strong) upper wave is
progged to impact the central CONUS on Friday. In response, an
intense low pressure center (dipping into the 970s (mb) across all
ensemble systems) is forecast to develop and move from the Front
Range into Nebraska/Kansas through the day. A very sharp surface
pressure gradient and responding low-level wind fields will
promote potential for another synoptically-driven windstorm across
the region from midday through evening hours. As was noted in
previous updates, current NBM guidance depicts swaths of >50-55
mph wind gusts during the afternoon across western zones, an
impressive signal at this range.

The current "most favored/likely" solution also places most of the
area on the dry side of the Pacific Front/dryline by the
afternoon. As winds increase atop the very dry and warm airmass,
combined with preceding days of drying (especially to fine fuels),
a very dangerous fire weather setup is evident across much of
Oklahoma and north Texas. Our latest forecast keeps most areas in
critical to extreme fire weather conditions during the
afternoon/evening.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions except at KDUA where MVFR conditions will continue
for part of the afternoon before clouds clear out of the area.
Winds will remain fairly light into early Monday with winds
shifting from the NW to SW this TAF period. Precipitation has
ended everywhere except KDUA. However the light rain is expected
to end by 18Z so no mention in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  75  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         33  76  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  36  78  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           34  82  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     35  80  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         38  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25