013
FXUS64 KOUN 040445
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight through Monday
   morning. Storms may become severe, especially across western
   and central Oklahoma and into adjacent portions of western
   north Texas with damaging winds possible.

 - Gradual warming trend through the next week with triple digits
   returning by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

A line of storms is expected to continue to move through the
western and central of the area tonight into Monday morning.
Strong to severe wind gusts may accompany this line as it moves
through the area. By sunrise, most of this activity should be
south of the area, although there may be some lingering showers
until mid morning. The remainder of Monday should be mostly dry
with highs into the mid 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows Monday into
Tuesday will dip down into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Tuesday will begin our warming trend as a mid-level ridge moves
closer to the southern Plains. Afternoon highs will get up to the
low to mid 90s across the entire area. There is a low chance of
thunderstorms to move off the central Plains Tuesday afternoon and
evening, but confidence in this activity is too low to warrant any
mentionable precipitation chances.

Wednesday will be even warmer with highs in the mid 90s to low
100s. Heat indices are expected to be in the 105-110F range for a
good portion of the area, so if this trend continues, would expect
heat products to be issued across much of the area. Once again,
we will remain dry through Wednesday.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

During the long term, we will see increased temperatures across
the whole area as a mid-level ridge hangs out to the west. 850mb
temperatures will begin to increase as the low-level thermal ridge
strengthens. Southerly surface flow will continue to advect low-
level moisture into the area with a potential for dangerous heat
indices towards the end of the week. Any precipitation chances
will be contingent on the progression of the ridge and any
developing shortwaves. Northwesterly flow aloft can bring an
increased potential for overnight convection off the High Plains.
As of right now, the forecast remains dry, but some longer range
guidance suggests that the the ridge breaks down by the end next
weekend with the potential for cooler temperatures and additional
rain chances.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Thunderstorms continue to organize across western Kansas early
this evening. Given the current storm motion, it`s possible storms
may enter far northwestern Oklahoma by 2-3Z. Instability and deep
layer shear will favor severe storms capable of damaging winds
and perhaps hail. Still some uncertainty on how far east storms
will develop this evening/overnight so will add PROB30 groups to
most sites when they are most likely to be impacted by storms.
Thunderstorms are expected to end by 12-15Z Monday at all sites
with the exception of DUA.

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected within thunderstorms;
otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  68  87  69 /  50  60  20   0
Hobart OK         89  66  90  68 /  80  60  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  69  91  71 /  50  60  20   0
Gage OK           89  62  89  66 /  80  50   0  10
Ponca City OK     85  66  85  67 /  40  60  10   0
Durant OK         89  70  89  70 /  40  40  40   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...06