813
FXUS64 KOUN 191939
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in northern and central
  Oklahoma this evening, with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

- Hot/humid conditions continue through Saturday.

- Heat relief is expected by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The main issue this evening will be storm potential. We have been
getting some cumulus development along an area of confluent low-
level winds from west central to north central Oklahoma, with some
shower development in west central Oklahoma. We`ll likely see a
few more storms develop this afternoon and evening. There is
sufficient instability to see some isolated strong to potentially
severe storms with some wind potential as downdraft CAPE is
currently analyzed over 1500 J/kg. These scattered showers and
storms will persist through mid-evening before diminishing by late
evening.

Although the front is moving into northwestern Oklahoma this
evening, it is expected to wash out and not bring any significant
cooling, so hot temperatures are expected again across the entire
area Friday. Some thunderstorms will be possible across northern
Oklahoma beginning Friday afternoon as a shortwave in the
southwesterly flow aloft moves northeast from New Mexico the
central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Storms remain possible across northern Oklahoma Friday evening as
well, but the primary rain chances will be Saturday afternoon
through early Monday morning as a longwave trough ejects from the
southwestern United States toward the central Plains. The trend
continues to be slower with the system and farther north with the
precipitation area (at least initially), and will continue this
trend in the precipitation timing and geography in our forecast.
Right now there look to be good chances of showers and storms
on Sunday and Sunday night as a cold front moves through the
area, so hopefully we will not get hornswaggled out of these
storms with the front. With the current expected timing of the
front, temperatures will not be quite as hot on Sunday with more
clouds and potentially areas of rain, and then the front brings
more fall-like temperatures for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today through tomorrow.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a cold front this afternoon and evening, most
numerous across north- central Oklahoma. The front will stall and
then lift north tonight, with southwest winds becoming southerly
once again at most sites and decreasing in speed this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  98  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         75 100  72  98 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  75 101  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           68 101  71  95 /  10  20   0  20
Ponca City OK     71  98  75  98 /  30  10  20  10
Durant OK         73  99  74  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08