455
FXUS64 KOUN 280558
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - Localized heavy rainfall is possible across northern Oklahoma
   on Thursday morning. A Flood Watch runs from 1 AM to 12 PM for
   portions of the area.

 - A few strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected across
   southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Thursday afternoon
   and evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible.

 - Continued rain chances on Friday into the holiday weekend,
   mainly across the western and southern portions of the area.
   Cooler temperatures remain areawide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Another wave of precipitation/thunderstorms, with potential for
severe weather and localized heavy rainfall, is expected across
portions of the area today.

Remnant precipitation/thunder from a previous intense supercell
across the Oklahoma Panhandle earlier continues to enter portions
of northwestern Oklahoma just after midnight. Additional thunderstorm
coverage, in response to a notable low-level jet/warm air
advection regime, is expanding across southern and central
Kansas. Both areas of activity may tend to slowly drift east-
southeastward into/across portions of northern Oklahoma through
daybreak this morning. While the boundary layer continues to
stabilize, enough elevated instability and wind shear exists for a
localized strong wind and hail occurrence during the predawn
hours. A risk for heavy rainfall also exists across portions of far
north-central Oklahoma. A Flood Watch has been posted for Kay,
Noble and Payne Counties, where the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and flooding is most evident this morning.

As a compact upper wave continues into the Ozarks through the day,
and an attendant surface front drops southward across the area,
rain and thunderstorm chances will likewise shift into portions of
central and southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas throughout
the day. This will include a risk for severe thunderstorms by
late this afternoon into evening across southern Oklahoma and
north Texas. Both large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest thunderstorms here.

Daytime temperatures will once again be strongly moderated by
ongoing precipitation and areas of cloud cover, along with the
beginnings of an intruding cooler airmass (behind the front). The
progression of the front looks to occur faster than previous
forecasts would indicate, with temperatures now expected to
remain in the 70s along and north of I-40. Near triple-digit heat
is likely across western-north Texas within a pre-frontal thermal
ridge.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Rain shower and thunderstorm potential looks to continue at least on
a scattered basis into Thursday night/Friday morning, especially
in areas along and south of Interstate 40. While a strong-to-
severe thunderstorm or two will remain possible during this time,
a primary risk for lightning and brief heavy rainfall will
accompany this activity.

While a few residual rain showers will be possible on Friday morning
across southeastern Oklahoma, a very pleasant weather day, featuring
mostly dry and cloudy conditions along with cooler temperatures
(70s north/central; 80s south), is currently advertised. Attention
will turn towards western Oklahoma/western-north Texas overnight
into Saturday morning for our next potential round of
precipitation. Low-medium (20-50%) precipitation chance looks to
persist into early portions of the day across southwestern extents
of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain unusually cool on
Saturday, a few degrees on either side of 80 on average.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

By and large, the tail end of the Labor Day Weekend should remain
mainly dry and relatively cool for most of Oklahoma and western-
north Texas. Additional episodes of High Plains originating
activity will be possible across western and southern portions of
the area on Saturday night and perhaps Sunday night (though
chances decrease over each successive night). Temperatures will
begin to slowly moderate into early next week, though will
continue to run several degrees below normal for the start of
September.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The stratus deck from today continues along and northeast of a
line from Norman to Alva. In addition, low cloud cover is rapidly
developing in northwest Oklahoma in advance of approaching
thunderstorms. Ceilings are in the MVFR/IFR range. Those
thunderstorms are expected to move into north central Oklahoma
prior to daybreak and central Oklahoma just after daybreak. A
frontal boundary immediately behind the storms will shift winds
from southerly/easterly to northeasterly, and ceilings will
continue to be MVFR/IFR in areas where they already are during the
day. Another round of storms will develop in the Red River
vicinity during the afternoon along the frontal boundary.
Expansion of postfrontal stratus is expected across much of the
area after sunset.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  66  75  66 /  70  40  20  10
Hobart OK         94  67  83  66 /  20  20  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  99  70  84  68 /  20  40  10  30
Gage OK           79  62  78  62 /  20  10   0  40
Ponca City OK     71  63  76  63 /  90  30  10  10
Durant OK         92  70  80  69 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for OKZ008-013-020.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...04