818
FXUS64 KOUN 011824
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Chance for light snow across north central Oklahoma through
   this afternoon with minor accumulations of less than half an
   inch. Slick roadways, overpasses, bridges may be possible.

 - A cold front Wednesday will bring colder weather into Thursday.
   Breezy post-frontal winds may give way to single digit to teens
   wind chill values.

 - There is a slight chance for light wintry precipitation
   Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Much of the wintry precipitation and light rain has ended across the
southern and central portions of Oklahoma and into western north
Texas. However, the shortwave is slowly meandering east across the
Plains late this morning and through the afternoon. Ascent and
deeper moisture associated with the wave may bring a short period
(few hours) through mid-afternoon for brief snowfall. Current radar
and observations show some light reflectivity bands across Kansas
and near the Oklahoma state line. There is a low-to-medium (10-50%)
chance for snow greater than 0.1" across north-central Oklahoma
through the mid-afternoon hours today, more specifically across
portions of Kay and Grant Counties. Minor impacts expected with
worst case scenario accumulations of less than 0.5". However, if a
band were to setup with more moderate snowfall, a few localized
areas, especially near Kay County, could see worst case scenario
amounts up to an inch.

With the shortwave passing quickly by later this afternoon, dry air
will fill in behind the system and bring clearing skies from west to
east. With the ongoing cloud cover, temperatures are slower to warm
today with the best shot for temperatures to warm above the 30s
being across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas. A few
localized areas may not warm above freezing today. Heading into
tonight, clear skies and light winds will give way to radiational
cooling and temperatures plummeting into the upper teens to mid
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tuesday will feature a departing surface high and the development of
lee troughing with breezy warm downsloping southerly surface flow.
Temperatures will be nearly 15 to 20 degrees warmer than Monday with
highs just below normal in the 50s. A shortwave aloft will dig into
the Great Basin region of the CONUS and push the surface low
eastward overnight Tuesday and bring a cold front across the
forecast area Wednesday morning. Much of the front will be through
the area by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will steadily fall
through the afternoon behind the front, especially across northern
Oklahoma, where the highs will likely hit close to noon. Highs
Wednesday will range from the mid 40s to the upper 50s, with the
warmest temperatures across southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas. Breezy post-frontal winds and cold temperatures Wednesday
night will give way to wind chill values early Thursday morning in
the single digits to teens across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 105 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The cold front that moved through Wednesday will return us to
below-normal temperatures on Thursday with highs likely in the
30s and 40s deg F.

A wave in the subtropical jet stream may provide enough synoptic-
scale ascent for the chance for precipitation Thursday into
Friday. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the
strength of the wave and amount of precipitation. For example, the
latest deterministic guidance shears out/weakens the wave
substantially--which would result in a drier forecast. If there is
precipitation, there is the potential for a wintry mix (depending
on temperature profiles) across parts of the area. Probabilistic
guidance indicates a 20 to 40% chance of 0.1" of snowfall
northwest of I-44. The chance of 1" of snowfall is 10 to 20%
across northwest into north central Oklahoma.

By Friday and Saturday, temperatures are expected to moderate with
a return to southerly winds. Another cold front is forecast to
move through late Saturday into Sunday, but the air mass behind
this front does not appear to be as cold as the previous two with
only a glancing blow for the Southern Plains.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A low ceiling will persist for the next 4-6 hours maintaining MVFR
or a potential MVFR category through 00Z. Some of our terminals in
western Oklahoma and northern Texas could start scattering out
ceilings after 22Z. There is a low potential for a band of snow
developing and moving across northcentral Oklahoma in the next
5-hours. As a result will have PROB30 for -SN which could impact
only terminals KPNC & KSWO up through 23Z.  Surface winds are
light and should remain light & variable after 00Z with all
terminals in a VFR category through the remainder of the
forecast. By 16Z surface winds may start to increase out of the
south-southwest as high pressure moves out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  23  51  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         19  53  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  24  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           21  54  26  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     18  50  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         26  50  33  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...68