798
FXUS64 KOUN 011732
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

    - Above average temperatures through much of this week.

    - A cold front brings breezy north winds and slightly cooler
      temperatures today and possibly next Monday.

    - No precipitation chances through the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A cold front is advancing to southeast across northwest Oklahoma
this morning with breezy northerly winds behind the front. The
cold front will continue to advance to southeast as the attendant
mid/upper-level trough moves across the Great Lakes region.

A cooler and drier air mass will advect southward behind the
front. However, with abundant solar insolation and only modestly
cooler air (that is lagging behind the initial wind shift), the
cold front will only result in a cool down to average for early
October. High temperatures near and northwest of I-44 will range
from mid 70s to near 80 deg F. Farther to the southeast,
temperatures will range from the mid 80s to near 90 deg F owing to
the lagging cool air behind the front.

Northerly winds will be breezy behind the front, especially from
after sunrise through midday, when there will be a juxtaposition
of vertical mixing and 25 to 35 knot 925 mb flow. Wind gusts
between 25 to 35 mph are expected. The 925 mb flow is forecast to
weaken by this afternoon, so wind gusts should gradually decrease
(though it will stay breezy all day).

The breezy northerly winds, combined with lower humidity behind
the front, will result in brief, elevated fire weather conditions
across northern into west central Oklahoma. However, a mitigating
factor for a greater wild fire risk is ERC-G percentile values
(fuels) are not overly high in this area (e.g., ~15 to 40th
percentile).

As winds decrease tonight, the drier air mass will set the stage
for a cool night with lows ranging from the upper 40s (north) to
upper 50s deg F (south).

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The cool down associated with today`s cold front will be brief. A
~588 to 592 dam mid-level ridge is forecast to develop across the
southwest U.S. Wednesday into Thursday with an elongated ridge
axis expanding eastward into the Southern Plains. In tandem,
southerly winds will return with the eastward expansion of the
low-level thermal ridge.

As a result, an early autumn heatwave will continue across the
southwest United States with the Southern Plains on the eastward
periphery. High temperatures will likely be in the 90s deg F
area wide beginning on Thursday, which is ~15 deg F above average
for early October. There is a ~10% chance Wichita Falls may tie
their record high of 97 deg F on Friday.

By early next week, deterministic and ensemble guidance indicate
another dry cold front will advance into the Southern Plains as a
mid/upper-level trough digs across the Great Lakes region.
However, the most likely scenario is above-average temperatures
and only a slight cool down with the passage of the cold front.
Unfortunately, there is no chance of rain for the foreseeable
future.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions expected. Gusty northeast winds will subside
through the afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight. Return
to southern winds tomorrow, with some moderate gusts across
western Oklahoma by end of forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80  53  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         82  53  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  56  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76  51  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     78  50  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         89  57  88  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11