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FXUS64 KOUN 241109
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
509 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 504 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Locally heavy rainfall still possible today across southeast
  Oklahoma.

- Turning cooler towards middle of this week with low
  temperatures near the freezing mark.

- Much colder weather possible next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lift from upper wave and strong waa will continue to aid precip
development across southeast third/half of Oklahoma into north Texas
through the remainder of the night. This will also continue through
much of the morning hours on Monday before things gradually shift
east of the area Late Monday afternoon and evening. Some areas of
south-central into southeast Oklahoma could pick up an additional 1
to 2 inches of rain before it comes to an end.

Farther north, some wrap-around precip will be possible across north
central Oklahoma. Amounts associated with this will remain light.

Otherwise, much like last night will have to deal with some fog,
some of which could be dense and may linger through the morning
hours. Will continue to monitor for this possibility and the
potential for a Dense Fog Advisory as we go through the remainder of
the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Early Tuesday a weak surface trough will move southeast across the
area with little more than a wind shift. However as a stronger
shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains, a much stronger
front will plunge south through the area Tuesday afternoon. Could
see some falling afternoon temps across the northwest half of the
area by afternoon. Another freeze is possible along and north of I-
44 by Wednesday morning with northwest Oklahoma having another hard
freeze.

Cooler day anticipated on Wednesday as the cooler surface high
settles south over the southern Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Surface ridge remains in place through the Plains for Thanksgiving
day with some modification of the airmass allowing temperatures to
rebound into the 50s and lower 60s by Thursday afternoon.

Surface ridge shifts east by Friday with breezy south winds
developing. This will draw gulf moisture quickly northward and with
strong waa expected by late Friday and Friday night showers and even
a few thunderstorms appear possible. The precip will likely continue
through the weekend as this waa pattern remains in place ahead of a
large upper low dropping south across the western CONUS. Models were
similar last night with timing of very cold air moving south through
the area on Saturday, however the latest GFS is not bringing the
front through until next Monday and not as strong. In addition the
models are trending to a more closed, retrograding upper low off
the California coast. This is all lowing overall confidence in the
extended part of the forecast period, but do currently do have a
mention of wintry precip by Sunday across northwest Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Widespread IFR stratus will persist through the morning, clearing
west to east late this morning and afternoon. Additionally,
patchy fog will be possible this morning. A last round of showers
and storms will affect KDUA for a few more hours before clearing
out. North central Oklahoma may see a few scattered wraparound
showers and storms this afternoon. Winds will become more westerly
as a front moves in from the west.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  46  61  34 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         69  41  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  45  69  36 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           62  37  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     61  46  60  30 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         67  49  67  40 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14