225
FXUS64 KOUN 161055
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into
    Saturday. A few strong to severe storms are possible.

  - Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
    expected late Saturday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Mid-level ridge will slide to the east as a mid-level trough
continues to advance towards the Plains. Southerly surface winds
and clear skies will aid in afternoon temperatures getting up into
the mid 80s for most locations, and into the upper 80s across
southern portions of the area. A weak perturbation within the main
mid-level flow will foster a few showers late Thursday into
Friday morning. No impacts are expected with this activity.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Large scale ascent will arrive Friday afternoon and evening as
the aforementioned trough moves in from the west. Sufficient
instability and deep-layer shear will be in place for at least
some severe weather potential with the strongest storms that
develop Friday afternoon through the overnight hours. Primary
hazards would be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Main cold front will move across the area Saturday, with the
precipitation chances shifting towards the east as the front moves
through.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Much cooler temperatures, albeit still above average, are
expected Sunday behind the frontal passage.

Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high
shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes
warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain
relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather
concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind
gusts expected by the afternoon.

Beyond Monday, a pattern shift will support temperatures still
above average, but below 80 across much of the area. As of right
now, no major precipitation chances are expected with this
upcoming pattern.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue across the region through the
valid period. A period of gusty southeast surface winds and
increasing high clouds (especially central & east Oklahoma) are
expected during the daytime on Thursday.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  63  86  67 /   0   0   0  30
Hobart OK         85  63  88  63 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  86  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           81  60  84  55 /   0  20  10  30
Ponca City OK     84  63  87  64 /   0   0  20  60
Durant OK         85  63  87  69 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09