475
FXUS64 KOUN 191055
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
555 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in northern and central
  Oklahoma this evening, with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

- Hot/humid conditions today and tomorrow.

- Heat relief is expected by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Most of the area will be hotter today in the prefrontal torch regime
just south of a weak frontal boundary. In fact, we will likely be
flirting with record highs, especially along an axis from Vernon
toward Enid. Heat indices will approach and may well exceed 105 in
spots, especially in north central Oklahoma this afternoon. However,
given the fact that we are approaching the autumnal equinox, the
duration of maximum heat risk will be much shorter than it would be
in June. This combined with the anticipation of 10 mph winds will
keep the heat risk low enough to preclude heat advisory issuance at
this time. We will continue to monitor the forecast and update as
needed.

This evening`s model guidance has trended a touch to
the south with the stall point of that boundary and now suggests it
will be along a line roughly from Ponca City to Erick by late
afternoon. Storm development still appears probable this afternoon
in a hot, well-mixed environment to the south of the boundary. Low-
level shear will be weak, allowing storms to become outflow-dominant
rapidly, but there is a chance for a bit of consolidation into
southeastward-moving storm clusters capable of wind gusts up to 60
mph.

Storms will rapidly diminish toward sunset as surface temperatures
begin to cool off. A warm night is expected, with lows only dropping
to the mid-70s from the OKC metro to the south.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Another day of near-record heat is expected tomorrow. This time, the
axis of the highest temperatures will shift a little bit south and
east as the front stalls out and eventually begins a slow northward
return. Widespread highs near 100 are possible. Subtle height falls
will occur toward northwest Oklahoma in the evening, which could be
enough to set off another round of showers and storms near a triple
point.

An upper-level closed low will approach from the southern Rockies
during the day on Saturday. Although the subtropical ridge doesn`t
look like it will be fully dislodged from our area during the day,
it will weaken enough to bring maximum temperatures down a couple of
degrees. As of right now, daytime on Saturday looks to be dry.

That trough will eject into the Plains on Sunday, bringing with it a
much stronger cold front. Storm chances may be highest Sunday night
as the cold front surges through the area, though we will keep an
eye on the dryline during the day on Sunday as well.

Beginning on Monday, the pattern will make a shift toward - if not
fall - then at least not summer. Highs will drop toward 80 across
much of the area and remain there at least through the middle of the
week.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Mainly expect VFR conditions through forecast period. Some
mid/high clouds through the day. There is a low chance for a few
storms to impact sites across north-central into central Oklahoma
late this afternoon and evening., so have maintained PROB30 at
PNC/SWO/OKC/OUN. South winds become gusty through the day with
gusts to 25kts across the west, expected to diminish this evening.
A weak surface boundary will move through WWR late today with
north winds for a short time this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  74  98  74 /  20  20   0   0
Hobart OK        100  74 100  72 /  20  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 100  74 101  73 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK          100  67 100  71 /  10   0  20  20
Ponca City OK    100  70  99  74 /  20  20  20  20
Durant OK         97  73  99  73 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30