112
FXUS64 KOUN 300820
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
320 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

    - Above average temperatures through much of the next week.

    - A cold front brings breezy north wings and slightly cooler
      temperatures Tuesday.

    - No precipitation chances through the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Ridging centered across the southwestern US will build into the
area a bit more today as mid-level temperatures also warm a bit.
This will help boost high temperatures a few more degrees over
yesterday`s readings, with most of the area seeing high
temperatures near or above 90 degrees today with plenty of
sunshine. A cold front will enter northern Oklahoma around
midnight tonight bringing a northerly wind shift but not much
change in temperature. Winds across northern Oklahoma could
potentially gust near or over 30 mph at times late tonight into
Tuesday morning, but as of now are expected to remain below
advisory criteria. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to low
60s.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

It is hard to imagine a much quieter period of weather than what is
forecast for the upcoming week, with above average temperatures and
hardly even a cloud to be found through the weekend. Still, there
are a few features of note. The first will be a brief cooldown on
Tuesday for parts of the area, with breezy northerly winds helping
drop temperatures closer to average across central and northern
Oklahoma behind tonight`s cold front. Further south, warmer
temperatures will persist across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas as the front weakens Tuesday, with highs near 90
degrees. No precipitation is forecast with the front as moisture
and upper forcing will be lacking.

Cooler temperatures will not last long as southerly winds will be
quick to return on Wednesday as the front washes out and cyclogenesis
occurs to our north and west in the lee of the Rockies.
Strengthening south/southwest flow (becoming gusty in western
Oklahoma) will help boost temperatures to near or above 90 degrees
areawide Wednesday and Thursday, with these above average
temperatures expected to persist through the upcoming weekend.
Ensembles are then fairly evenly split on whether or not a cold
front will reach the area early next week and bring cooler
temperatures or if the front remains to our north and warmer than
average conditions continue. Either way, models are in excellent
agreement in little to no chance for precipitation for at least
the next 7 days.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

VFR will prevail. A few high clouds are trying to make their way
into eastern Oklahoma, but not enough to make it interesting in
our part of the world. Dewpoints are hovering around 60 in the
Durant area, so we may need to watch for the potential for a low
cloud or two at KDUA, but confidence is not high enough to include
in the TAF just yet.

Fox

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  61  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         93  60  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  93  62  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           96  56  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     91  60  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         91  62  90  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...21