734
FXUS64 KOUN 111815
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
115 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

 - Severe storms are possible early this afternoon into the
   overnight hours. Main hazards are damaging wind gusts, large
   hail, and flash flooding.

 - Temperatures "cooling" slightly below average early to middle
   of the week, gradually warming into next weekend.

 - Low chances for showers and storms continue much of the week,
   with highest chances today and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A mid-level trough will continue to move across the Plains today,
and will provide enough large scale ascent for scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. Sufficient
instability will support stronger updrafts with the initial
development for large hail concerns. Weak deep-layer shear will
support pulse-like storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts
as they collapse. The primary area for these storms to develop
are across north central to central and down to southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and evening.
Additional complex of storms may move off the high plains of Texas
and move into southwestern portions of the area late tonight into
the overnight hours. The primary hazard with this activity would
be damaging wind gusts.

With the potential for numerous rounds of precipitation, flooding
will be possible across much of the area. 1-2 inches is expected
across a broad area, with local amounts up to 4 inches possible. A
flood watch is in effect from 21Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday for all
areas excluding northwest and southeastern Oklahoma.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Lingering showers and storms are possible Tuesday morning across
much of the area. This activity should diminish in
coverage/intensity in the morning. Additional thunderstorms are
possible Tuesday afternoon across much of the area. A few stronger
storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and small
hail. Tuesday will kick start much cooler temperatures across the
area. Afternoon highs overall will get up to the upper 80s to low
90s.

Low rain/thunderstorm chances will continue into Wednesday, with
similar temperatures across the area. A mid-level ridge will start
to approach the area Wednesday from the west, but we likely won`t
feel the affects from this until later in the week.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Upper ridging will begin to rebuild across the southeastern US as we
head into the end of the week into the weekend. This should lead to
a rebound in temperatures, with highs pushing near or slightly
above seasonal averages (mid to upper 90s) by Saturday and Sunday.
Rain/storm chances are expected to decrease during this period
but not disappear altogether as the center of the upper ridge will
be far enough from the area to allow for at least slight chances
(10-20%) for storms to continue into the weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

While VFR conditions are likely to prevail for much of the valid
period, intervals of lowered category (due to thunderstorms) will
be possible. The current most likely scenario is for scattered
thunderstorm development across central/north-central Oklahoma by
early this evening before more widespread coverage emerges into
western/southern Oklahoma and north Texas early on Tuesday
morning. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near and
beneath the strongest thunderstorms.

Widespread VFR conditions are forecast to return behind
departing/dissipating precipitation areas on Tuesday morning.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  87  71  90 /  60  50  20  10
Hobart OK         68  90  69  94 /  60  30  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  71  91  71  94 /  30  30  20  10
Gage OK           64  88  65  92 /  70  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     69  88  69  91 /  70  40  20  10
Durant OK         72  93  73  93 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     016>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09