074
FXUS64 KOUN 092257
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
457 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 452 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

- Minor river flooding continues.

- Patchy frost possible early Sunday and Monday NW OK.

- Low rain chances with front Wednesday, areas of frost and
  possible freeze Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Breezy southwest winds will decrease and become light and
variable tonight as the surface pressure gradient relaxes in
response to a vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone lifting
toward the Great Lakes. Light winds, clear skies, and relative
humidity near saturation may result in patchy frost across
northwest Oklahoma, where temperatures are forecast to drop into
the mid 30s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A gradual warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday as mid-level
heights rise across the Southern Plains with abundant insolation
(sunshine). A weak surface pressure gradient will result in
continued light and variable winds. Temperatures by Monday will
be ~5 deg F above average with highs generally in the upper 60s to
low 70s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

No significant changes were made to the extended forecast with
breezy southerly winds expected on Tuesday, ahead of a cold front
that will move through Wednesday. The chance of rain remains low
with the highest (relative) chance across northeast into east
central Oklahoma. The air mass behind the cold front is not
appreciably cooler. In addition, any cool down will be brief with
rising mid-level heights toward latter half of the week. High
temperatures by Friday and Saturday could be ~10 deg F above
average for mid-November.

Mahale

Previous Discussion...Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Southerly flow will increase on Tuesday ahead of next pacific
cold front. This front is progd to move into northwest Oklahoma
Tuesday night and progress from northwest to southeast on
during the first half of Wednesday. Models are still forecasting
the development of at least a few showers near this front as it
moves into slightly better moisture field east of Interstate-35.
The low level ridge builds in quickly late Wednesday into the
night, with winds becoming light and variable by early Thursday.
This will set the stage for more in the way of widespread frost
and possibly a light freeze across portions of Oklahoma (mainly
the northwest half of our forecast area).

Warming trend still progd to end the week head of another longwave
trough progressing across the western states.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 452 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

Light south/southwest winds this evening with clear skies. Weak
front will work into northwest Oklahoma this evening and move
south across the area during the day Sunday with light northwest
winds behind the boundary. Skies remain clear tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  43  67  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         39  68  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  44  69  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           35  68  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     39  64  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         48  74  48  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30