494
FXUS64 KOUN 150459
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1059 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

- Heavy rainfall is likely Sunday night into Monday, with severe
  storm chances increasing for this period.

- Turning much cooler towards the middle of next week.

- Slight chance of snow introduced into the forecast for next
  Wednesday (northwest).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Light winds continue to swing to the south as the surface ridge axis
progresses out of our area this evening and clear skies prevail
tonight. As an upper trough moves ashore California tonight, mid-
level height falls extending well ahead of this system begin to
spread over the Rockies and western plains. As a result, the surface
trough begins to deepen slightly by tomorrow morning with a slight
uptick in winds overnight. Overnight low temperatures should drop
into the 40`s.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Beautiful weather is in store for tomorrow and Saturday with high
temperatures in the 60`s/70`s. The aforementioned trough becomes
positively tilted as the trough splits, and the elongated jet
streak (extending from Baja California to the plains) provides for
continued deepening of the surface trough. As a result, increased
winds are expected tomorrow primarily over our western counties,
with gusts of 30-35 mph possible over northwest Oklahoma. Widespread,
breezy conditions are expected on Saturday along with increasing
mid/high-level clouds. With persisting southerly flow, dewpoint
temperatures and overnight lows will trend upward. By Saturday
night, the trough is expected to become a closed low over Baja
California.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Models are showing better agreement with the track/speed of the
closed upper low through the end of the weekend. Gulf moisture
(in the form of stratus, fog, or drizzle - or all three) spreads
northward into our area early Sunday morning and rain chances begin
increasing on Sunday afternoon, especially out west. Meanwhile, a
surface front moves into northwestern Oklahoma and stalls through
Monday morning as the upper low pivots towards our area from the
lower Rio Grande Basin. With bulk shear vectors oriented parallel
to the modeled surface boundary, would anticipate multiple rounds
or training of rain/storms, which could pose a flash flooding risk.
Storm total QPF continues to be impressive with 2 to 4 inches possibles
somewhere near or west of the I-44 corridor and 1 to 3 inches over
our southeastern counties. Will likely have to wait until CAMS
begin to capture this event before gaining confidence in the area
of heaviest rainfall.

In addition to the heavy rain, severe thunderstorms could be a
concern. The GFS/ECMWF both depict the H500 jet lifting over our
region as a strong 65+ knot LLJ develops over Oklahoma and north
Texas on Sunday night. Given the prog`d severe parameters, would
anticipate the severe threat to include areas near I-40 and southward.
While instability appears to be on the low-side, wind shear and
0-3km storm-relative helicity could be substantial and could lead
to QLCS tornadoes late Sunday and into early Monday.

Much cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday night and into the end of
next week. The season`s first chance for snow appears to be next
Wednesday, though chances are still low and are confined to
northwestern Oklahoma.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Southerly winds will generally be light, aside from some afternoon
breeziness in northwest Oklahoma. Skies will remain clear.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  42  67  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         67  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  42  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           68  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     66  39  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         69  40  69  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14