036
FXUS64 KOUN 142234
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
534 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

  - Widely scattered showers this afternoon northwest.

  - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
through Friday.

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into
    Saturday with the next cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Convection has been much more widespread over northwest Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle than models would have suggested,
although the precipitation is relatively light and not many
Oklahoma mesonet sites have reported measurable precipitation
within the last couple of hours. Still there is enough showing up
on radar to include some POPs in the northwest into this
afternoon despite the lack of signal in the models. Otherwise
drier low-level air is spreading in from south to north and has
eroded the cloudiness except in the northwest. This trend will
continue with clearing skies expected even in the northwest late
this afternoon and mostly clear skies areawide tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The upper ridge builds back over the area Wednesday/Thursday bring
a return to the warm and dry weather pattern. The ridge shifts a
little bit to the east on Thursday as an upper trough approaches
the Rocky Mountains. This trough remains far enough west to not
bring storm chances through Thursday, although the slightly lower
heights and thicknesses over the area as the ridge shifts east
will likely keep high temperatures a degree or two cooler than
Wednesday in a lot of areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The upper-level synoptic pattern begins to become more dynamic as
it typically does this time of year, and the frontal system set
to arrive this weekend will mark the first of a few for the long
term period with temperatures oscillating between warm and less
warm.

As the weakening upper trough reaches the northern plains, a jet
streak dives southeastward on the backside of the trough which will
prompt a shortwave to redevelop along the southern extent of the
trough axis over New Mexico. Breezy SSW winds are expected to become
more widespread on Friday as the LLJ shifts eastward over central
Oklahoma and as the surface low/trough axis shifts into central
Kansas with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. The increased return
flow will raise dewpoint temperatures back into the 60`s on Friday
afternoon and it will feel muggy with high temperatures in the mid-
to upper-80`s.

While details on the placement/strength/timing of the surface low
and dryline remain uncertain beyond Friday, the stage will be set
for shower and thunderstorm potential on Friday night and Saturday.
There is not yet a strong signal for severe storms. However, given
the proximity of the shortwave, surface features, and time of year,
we would not be surprised if marginally severe to severe storms
become more probable as the time draws closer. The surface low
pressure system is prog`d to track somewhere across Oklahoma on
Saturday and will be followed by a cold front. A secondary surge of
cooler air appears possible (seen at H850) behind a reinforcing cold
front. Thus Sunday should be the "coolest" day of the upcoming seven
days, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70`s to low 80`s.

Then, shortwave ridging moves over the plains on Monday with a warmup
into the 80s and 90s. Another cold front moves into our area towards
the middle of next week.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions with some mid-level clouds moving across parts of
northern OK. Winds will be from the E or SE this TAF period except
for KWWR which will shift towards the S Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  61  84  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         59  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           57  82  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     62  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         60  86  57  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25