925
FXUS64 KOUN 281714
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1114 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1113 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions on Friday

- Showers, thunderstorms, and elevated fire weather conditions on
  Sunday

- Next Tuesday is expected to be the most impactful day with
  critical to extreme fire weather conditions and thunderstorm
  potential

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1102 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Observations show dewpoints lower and winds a little higher than
forecast already. Lowered dewpoint temperatures towards the NBM
10th-25th percentile and updated winds towards a blend of HRRRmean
and CONSSHORT. This, unfortunately, has introduced a swath of near
critical fire weather conditions for today near the I-40 corridor
and across parts of southwest Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas.

Thompson

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

A surface high across the southern Plains will continue to slide
off to the south today and a surface low will move across the
Great Lakes Region. The surface response will be a tightening
pressure gradient over our area as we are sandwiched between these
two features. Surface winds today will remain out of the
southwest, with sustained winds of 15-25 mph in most locations,
with gusts up to 30 mph. Downslope flow will aid in afternoon
temperatures climbing up into the mid to upper 70s across the
whole area. Dry air will be advected eastward, so RH values will
be in the teens by the mid afternoon. The breezy winds, low RHs,
and dry fuels will foster elevated fire weather concerns for areas
along and west of I-35.

A weak cold front will push in from the north this evening, but
overnight temperatures won`t be affected too much. Even with clear
skies and northerly winds, overnight lows will still only get
down to the upper 30s to low 40s by Saturday morning.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Winds will veer Saturday and will still remain out of the east-
northeast. This continuous fetch of cooler air will help afternoon
temperatures on Saturday not get out of the 60s for much of
Oklahoma. For those of you in southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas, expect highs in the low to mid 70s.

A shortwave trough will move across the TX/OK Panhandle late
Saturday into Sunday. There is still some model disagreement with
the track of this system. Right now, the grand ensemble still is
reasonable for the overall "big picture" of this system. Surface
winds will be gusty Sunday afternoon (15-25 mph) and with ongoing
dry fuels, elevated fire weather conditions are expected. This
fire weather threat is primarily wind-driven, and may be limited
depending on how much rainfall we end up getting. Showers and a
few thunderstorms are possible as this system moves off to the
east late Sunday into Monday morning. There is not much much
instability, but there is 50-60kts of deep-layer. A few strong
storms may produce small hail or gusty winds Sunday afternoon into
the overnight hours.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Aforementioned showers and storms will continue to push off to
the east Monday morning. An additional strong system will move
into the area and vicinity on Tuesday. Once again, there are still
differences amongst the long term models in terms of timing and
evolution of the wave. There is increasing confidence that very
gusty winds (30-40 mph sustained) are expected, especially across
the western third of the area. Westerly winds will bring in very
dry air across most of the area Tuesday. This dry air, in addition
to very gusty winds and already dry fuels, will foster critical
to extreme fire weather conditions. Ahead of the dryline, moisture
advection will support mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints across
portions of southeastern and east central Oklahoma. At least a few
strong storms will be possible with this system, but confidence
in westward extent of storms is uncertain at this time.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions expected this TAF period with a few high clouds.
SW winds will shift towards the N and NE this afternoon/evening as
a cold front moves through the area. Winds will then begin to
shift towards the E early Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  42  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76  39  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  42  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           73  33  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  37  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  44  70  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...25