250
FXUS64 KOUN 061025
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
525 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

    - Elevated fire weather northern Oklahoma today

- Air Quality Alert for OKC metro today

- Hot and dry weather continues into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma early this
morning and make relatively slow progress southward through the day.
While northerly winds will be noticeable behind the front, they
are not expected to be all that strong, and intrusion of drier
air will be somewhat delayed based on latest high res model runs.
This will minimize overall impacts on the region as far as fire
weather concerns. Less hot conditions, roughly 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than yesterday, are still expected across northern
Oklahoma. Elsewhere, most highs will once again be near or higher
than 90. Elevated fire weather conditions, where winds will be
strong enough and RH low enough, should stay confined to far
northern Oklahoma this afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than this
morning, mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma, with some
upper 40 degree lows possible near the Kansas border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A low amplitude s/wv trough is still progd to pass to our north late
Monday and Tuesday, which will likely yield an increase in mid-level
cloud cover. GFS is still an outlier in producing some scattered
light showers late Monday night and Tuesday morning, but given
strength/duration of lift and available moisture, we will keep the
mention of showers out of the forecast.

Seasonably hot and dry forecast still looks on track the rest of the
week, into next weekend. With the potential for increasing southerly
winds late in the week, elevated fire weather appears likely from
Thursday into the weekend, mainly across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Extended models are showing poor run to run
consistency for next weekend and beyond, which lowers the
confidence on any significant cool down that was previously
depicted.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

Light south to east-southeast winds will gradually shift to the
northeast. These winds will become briefly gusty across northern
Oklahoma (KWWR, KPNC, and KSWO) this afternoon. Any gusty winds
should subside after sunset.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  57  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         91  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  92  62  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           86  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     88  51  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         92  62  89  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10