378
FXUS64 KOUN 072353
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
553 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

- Areas of fog expected to develop across the area tonight

- Two rounds of winter weather are possible next week Monday
  through Wednesday, including chances for snow, freezing rain,
  and sleet

- Several cold fronts will arrive between Saturday and mid week
  next week, yielding an overall cooling trend

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

With a shallow, cool air mass entrenched across the Southern Plains,
cloud cover has been slow to erode today. We do have some drier air
moving in from the southwest up through western north Texas, but
this process is occurring on the slow end of model guidance.

With all the incoming moisture, widespread stratus and areas of fog
are likely to redevelop again tonight. There is some indication that
there could be some patchy dense fog and patchy drizzle as well,
though that is less certain.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The big questions on Saturday will be how much warm air can be
advected north before the cold front arrives, how much cold air will
lag behind the cold front, and how persistent will cloud cover be
through the day. As in previous forecasts, we will trend toward the
colder, cloudier side of guidance. Additionally, north winds will
become gusty behind the front.

With the colder, drier air moving in behind the front, we should see
most of the cloud cover clear out Saturday night. This will allow
temperatures to drop into the 20s (north) ad 30s (south) under the
influence of radiational cooling.

With a deeper cold air mass in place, Sunday will see high
temperatures in the 40s. As has been the trend, higher res models
are coming in with increased cloud cover.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Update: Confidence is increasing in winter weather impacts next
week. Otherwise, no significant change to the long term forecast

Previous:

The synoptic-scale pattern next week--especially late Monday
through Wednesday--becomes favorable for both precipitation and
colder weather with an active southern and northern jet stream.

The first southern stream wave is forecast to lift into the
Southern Plains on Monday. For the first wave, no significant air
mass change (i.e., colder air) is expected before the onset of
precipitation. This should initially limit the risk of winter
precipitation. Winds will eventually shift to the north Monday
night into Tuesday, which will advect colder air southward as the
system departs. Therefore, the highest chance for any winter
precipitation will be across northwest/northern Oklahoma as the
system exits.

A northern stream shortwave moving across the Great Lakes will
advance a reinforcing shot of a cold air into the Southern Plains
in the wake of this system. As a result of this reinforcing cold
front, the chance for widespread winter precipitation is higher as
another southern stream wave approaches on Wednesday. At this
time, a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow are all
possible.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The stratus cleared out of western Oklahoma and western north
Texas this afternoon. The stratus is expected to spread back to
the west this evening with MVFR/IFR ceilings, although it may not
make it as far as KWWR. Some areas of fog will develop again this
evening. A strong cold front will move through the area on
Saturday with gusty north winds. Visibilities will generally
improve after the cold front passage with ceilings slowly lifting
after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  51  30  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         43  50  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  54  67  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           35  48  20  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     40  46  25  42 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         58  71  41  47 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26