Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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660 FXUS64 KOUN 010334 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible through early evening along the quasi-stationary front as it slowly shifts north of I-40 and transitions as a warm front late tonight. A relatively narrow zone of 3000 to 4000 J/kg CAPE exists near the boundary, along with weak mid-level lapse rates. Storms that develop could have narrow updrafts that could pulse up and produce hail and gusty winds. Given weak shear, however, storms are not anticipated to become organized enough to produce very large hail. DCAPE is roughly 1000 or lower, and so winds aren`t anticipated to be terribly high. Still, lightning, sub- severe hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall are possible. The 599 dam high pressure ridge observed over north Texas this morning weakens slightly while sliding to the east as a trough departs the Pacific Northwest deepens over the northern high plains tomorrow. The associated mid-level height falls will result in a surface trough taking shape over the northern plains. Weak low-level flow strengthens and veers tonight with the LLTR intensifying tomorrow. With mostly sunny skies, daytime mixing will aid in raising temperatures and wind speeds with widespread 100+ deg temperatures tomorrow. Issued a Heat Advisory for areas generally along/east of I-35 for tomorrow afternoon and evening with heat index values up to 110 degrees possible for these areas. An Excessive Heat Warning was considered for some of our eastern and southern counties. However, a 4 to 6 degree spread in modeled dewpoints made this less certain. Will re-evaluate with tonight`s package. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The surface trough axis moves into the central plains by Tuesday morning and the trailing front pushes into northwest Oklahoma late Tuesday before becoming quasi-stationary. With veered low-level flow and a pronounced LLTR (H850 temperatures near 30 deg C over northwest OK), Tuesday should be the hottest day of the upcoming week, though hot conditions will continue through Thursday (along with heat headlines). There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible. With the boundary remaining nearly stationary, light rain will remain possible over northwest and northern Oklahoma through Wednesday night. A cold front then moves into the area late Thursday or early Friday, and temperatures trend downward Friday and Saturday. Model spread in maximum temperatures for Friday is quite large (roughly 10 degrees). For now, forecast highs are only in the upper 80`s for the northern 2/3 of Oklahoma with low 90`s in store for Saturday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. East-southeast winds will gradually veer toward the south or south-southwest and become gusty tomorrow afternoon. Winds will back toward the south or south-southeast during the evening. Fair weather cumulus is possible in the afternoon (~6000 to 8000 ft AGL). Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 99 80 101 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 78 102 80 104 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 80 102 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 75 100 77 103 / 10 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 73 99 79 103 / 10 10 0 0 Durant OK 77 99 78 100 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ007-008-012- 013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...10