815
FXUS64 KOUN 101118
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Dangerously hot and humid conditions continue today before a
   gradual "cool down" into early next week.

 - A few severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening
   across northern Oklahoma.

 - Low storm chances linger into the next week across much of the
   area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Showers and thunderstorms (some severe) continue across portions of
Kansas and southeast Colorado early this morning as a shortwave
across the central Rockies continues to dig southeastward. The
bulk of this activity is expected to outrun its forcing and
diminish as it approaches northern Oklahoma this morning, but
showers and a few thunderstorms may make it into the area near or
after sunrise. Regardless, outflow from convection will push into
northern Oklahoma along with a surface trough. These features will
help serve as a focus for convective development this afternoon
as the southern portion of the mid-level trough enters the
panhandles and northwest Oklahoma. Scattered to numerous storm
development is expected across northwest into northern Oklahoma
later this afternoon into this evening, with the stronger storms
capable of producing locally severe downburst winds and marginally
severe hail, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Intensity of convection is expected to wane overnight into early
Monday morning as it drifts south and eastward, but at least
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to linger for
much of the night.

In addition to rain/storm chances, hot and humid conditions are
expected once again today, with a heat advisory in effect for much
of the area outside of northwest Oklahoma. Heat indices of 105+ are
possible this afternoon in these areas, which could be potentially
dangerous for those spending extended periods outdoors or those
without AC. Be sure to stay hydrated and take breaks from the sun
whenever possible this afternoon.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
to be ongoing Monday morning but will gradually diminish by mid to
late morning. Renewed development is likely Monday afternoon as the
atmosphere destabilizes, especially in the vicinity of any lingering
outflow boundaries. A few storms with strong wind gusts are possible
once again, though a lack of wind shear will keep activity rather
disorganized and pulse-like. Troughing lingers over the area
into Tuesday which will keep low chances for showers and storms in
the forecast.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be much cooler than recent days,
with afternoon temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to near
90 degrees.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Near or slightly below average temperatures will continue for much
of the middle to end of next week as troughing over the central US
only slowly lifts out. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm
each day, but overall storm coverage should be lower than Monday
and Tuesday. Ridging will begin to build over the southern US as
we head into next weekend but as of now it appears to be centered
far enough from the area that we could see low chances for
showers and storms continue into the weekend along with warmer
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
along and near a surface boundary this morning. As convection in
Kansas continues to weaken/move east, the boundary is expected to
stall this morning. Before this occurs a wind shift is expected at
WWR and PNC (from the north/northeast). Elsewhere, a southerly
wind is expected to prevail. Most of the ongoing precipitation in
northern Oklahoma will weaken/dissipate by 15Z with lingering mid
and high clouds. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along and north of the boundary this afternoon and
evening. These storms should mainly impact terminal sites in and
around WWR/PNC/SWO. The convection will likely push the front
southward this evening, but how far south is uncertain.  Mainly
VFR conditions are expected with MVFR conditions possible in and
around thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  73  91  71 /  10  30  40  40
Hobart OK        102  71  92  69 /  10  40  30  40
Wichita Falls TX 100  74  95  72 /  10  10  20  20
Gage OK           95  65  87  64 /  20  70  40  50
Ponca City OK     98  71  89  70 /  30  60  50  50
Durant OK         97  74  95  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ006>008-012-013-018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06