370
FXUS66 KOTX 160803
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
103 AM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light mountain precipitation on Friday. Dry and breezy winds
  for the lee of the Cascades and Columbia Basin Friday
  afternoon.

- Widespread lowland rain, mountain snow Saturday evening
  through Sunday. Widespread breezy winds Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with seasonable daytime temperatures are expected
through Thursday with cold overnight lows. A weak front Thursday
night into Friday will bring light precipitation to the
mountains, with dry and breezy winds for the lee of the
Cascades and Columbia Basin Friday afternoon. A stronger system
Saturday into Sunday will bring widespread lowland rain,
mountain snow, and widespread breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday and Friday: A positively tilted upper-level ridge will
extend from offshore of the Northwest coast through southern
Alberta, intersecting the Inland Northwest and promoting a
beautiful fall day. Expect mostly clear skies through early
afternoon Thursday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Middle and high clouds will increase later in the day ahead of a
weak front associated with an upper-level trough tracking
across British Columbia. Precipitation with the initial front
Thursday night will mainly impact the Cascades. A shortwave
moving through northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle,
accompanied by a 100-120 kt upper jet, will bring better chances
(30-50%) for light precipitation Friday afternoon across far
northeast Washington and the Panhandle. Winds will increase
Friday afternoon as stronger flow aloft mixes to the surface,
with westerly to northwesterly gusts strongest through the
Cascade gaps, across the western Columbia Basin, and in the lee
of the Blues. The NBM shows a 40-50% chance of gusts reaching 40
mph in these areas. Model soundings also indicate a very dry
layer developing in the lee of the Cascades and across the
Basin, which could mix down and drop minimum relative humidities
into the upper teens to lower 20s. This would support an
elevated fire spread risk in areas of dry grasses, along with
the potential for localized blowing dust.

Saturday and Sunday: A transient upper-level ridge will move
across the Northwest on Saturday ahead of a stronger system
digging into the Gulf of Alaska. Guidance shows good agreement
that precipitation chances will increase across the Cascades and
northern mountains Saturday afternoon within the warm sector,
becoming widespread Saturday night with the passage of a cold
front. Precipitable water values will rise from less than 0.40
inches Saturday morning to over 0.70 inches by evening as warm,
moist air advects from the southwest. Snow levels will initially
climb above 7000 feet at the onset of precipitation, then fall
to below 5000 feet in central Washington and around 5500 feet
over the Idaho Panhandle as the cold front moves through
Saturday night into Sunday.

From 5 PM Saturday through 5 PM Sunday, the NBM indicates an
80% or greater chance of at least 0.25 inches of precipitation,
and a 60% or greater chance of at least 0.50 inches, across the
Cascades, far eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. In
the lee of the Cascades, the Columbia Basin, and the Okanogan
Valley, probabilities drop to 20-30% for 0.25 inches. As snow
levels fall Saturday night, Washington Pass has a 70% chance of
at least 2 inches, 50% for 4 inches, and 30% for 6 inches of
snow.

Stronger winds will accompany the system Sunday, with the NBM
showing a 50-70% chance of gusts exceeding 40 mph and a 20-40%
chance of exceeding 45 mph from the Wenatchee area through the
Columbia Basin, into the Spokane area, and across the Palouse
and Blue Mountains.

Monday through Wednesday: Forecast confidence decreases early
next week as ensemble guidance diverges on the synoptic pattern.
Roughly 75% of solutions rebuild some degree of upper-level
ridging over the Northwest, shifting the storm track north into
British Columbia. The remaining 25% favor continued troughing
and additional systems bringing unsettled weather. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions with light winds expected at TAF sites.
Patchy fog is expected in the sheltered northern valleys
Thursday morning. There is a 20% chance for MVFR conditions to
develop at KCOE, but confidence is not high enough to include
in TAF. Mid and high level clouds will increase Thursday
afternoon with a weak front.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions at the TAF sites.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        58  37  59  32  56  42 /   0   0   0   0  10  70
Coeur d`Alene  56  37  57  32  56  42 /   0   0  20   0  10  70
Pullman        56  35  57  32  57  42 /   0   0  10   0   0  60
Lewiston       60  41  65  40  64  47 /   0   0  10   0   0  40
Colville       58  24  57  21  53  31 /   0   0  10   0  10  80
Sandpoint      54  32  54  29  53  37 /   0   0  30  10  10  80
Kellogg        56  38  54  34  56  44 /   0   0  50  20  10  70
Moses Lake     60  35  64  30  58  40 /   0   0   0   0  10  70
Wenatchee      61  44  62  38  56  44 /   0   0   0   0  10  80
Omak           61  37  62  34  56  39 /   0   0   0   0  10  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Moses Lake Area.
ID...None.

&&

$$