739
FXUS66 KOTX 082240
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
340 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures today peaking in the upper 90s to 105.

- Dry conditions and increasing winds will bring critical fire
  weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings
  have been issued from 1pm Tuesday to 8pm Wednesday.

- Wednesday will deliver the strongest winds. Gusty conditions
  expected regionwide with gusts 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be hot and very dry. Increasing winds combined with
dry conditions Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday will result in
critical fire weather conditions. After a brief mid-week
cooldown, warm temperatures will return Friday into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: Red Flag Warnings remain in place
across much of Central and Eastern Washington and down around
the Lewiston area for wind and low relative humidity. Water
vapor satellite shows a large closed low moving into British
Columbia with a trailing cold front drapped across Vancouver
Island this afternoon. Hot, dry, and breezy west to southwest
winds will continue ahead of the front into the early evening
hours. The Red Flag Warning was expanded earlier to include the
Methow Valley. Heat Advisories are also in place across many of
the lower elevations of Central and SE Washington down into the
Lewiston area as high temperatures reach near the 100F mark.
After a lull tonight, winds will increase further on Wednesday
with the cold front passage. This in combination with relative
humidity near critical thresholds will result in another day of
fire weather concerns over the region with Red Flag Warnings.

Regarding precipitation and thunderstorm potential with the
front, overall the chances are low as the brunt of the moisture
tracks north of the Canadian border. There are a couple areas to
monitor however. Ahead of the front some elevated moisture and
instability gets picked up from northern Oregon and tracks
northeast as far north as Spokane and Coeur d`Alene overnight
into early Wednesday morning. The NAM shows 700-500mb MU CAPE
reaching 300-500 J/KG but forcing is minimal. Thus just some mid
level clouds are expected along with a possible sprinkles.
Although given the instability a stray storm is not completely
out of the question. The second area comes with the front
passage. Upslope flow into the Cascade crest and increase in
lower/mid level moisture will likely produce some precipitation,
but the westerly flow will absorb this moisture with little to
no precipitation expected in the lee of the Cascades away from
the crest. The second area is along the Canadian border where
there is a 20% chance of showers on Wednesday.

Regarding smoke: The latest HRRR smoke model is showing smoke from
the Pomas Fire in the Cascades tracking eastward into the northern
mountains southward to the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area tonight into
Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night. Although much of the
smoke is expected to remain aloft with the greatest surface smoke
continuing to occur in the Entiat Valley during the overnight and
morning hours.

Thursday through Tuesday: Ensembles are in good agreement of a
flat ridge providing a dry pattern Thursday through the weekend.
This pattern results in a gradual warming trend as high
temperatures warm back up into the 90s. The flat ridge and zonal
flow over the area will also bring about some increase west-
southwest breezes each afternoon and evening leading to elevated
fire weather conditions returning again as well starting on
Saturday. On Monday and Tuesday approximately 1/2 of the ensembles
show a wave dropping down from the northwest bringing about a
shift to breezy north winds and a little cooler but still dry.
The other 1/2 keep flat ridging in place for contined warm and dry
weather. Current forecast favors some slight cooling and increase
in winds but this may be fine tuned further as we get closer. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Winds be breezy with
gusts 15-25 kts, decreasing after 01z for Spokane, Pullman, and
Lewiston but remain elevated into Tuesday evening for Moses
Lake, Wenatchee, and Omak before increasing again Wednesday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        63  89  58  83  54  89 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  61  88  59  79  54  86 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        59  85  54  78  51  86 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       69  95  65  86  60  92 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  88  48  82  45  89 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  83  56  76  49  84 /  10  10  20  10   0   0
Kellogg        65  85  59  76  56  84 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     63  91  58  87  58  94 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      68  86  63  86  63  94 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           63  87  57  86  56  92 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -
     Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone
     709)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone
     706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for Foothills
     of Northeast Washington (Zone 701).
     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Methow
     Valley (Zone 704).
ID...     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$