114
FXUS66 KOTX 161758
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1058 AM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will produce strong north winds across central
and north central Washington on Wednesday. Sustained winds of 25
mph with gusts between 35 and 45 mph are likely from Oroville to
Omak to Ephrata from mid morning into the early evening Wednesday.
Breezy winds and low humidity will likely linger into Thursday.
Above average temperatures will return Friday and Saturday with
highs in the 60s and 70s. Sunday through Tuesday will be cooler
and breezy weather with mountain showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: The strong trough set to impact our forecast area today is
currently over British Columbia and will be making its way downward
into Idaho later. This strong, dry trough will allow cold northerly
flow to funnel through the Okanogan Valley and into the Waterville
Plateau and the Columbia Basin. Sustained winds with this system
will be 25 to 30 mph, and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected.
The highest wind totals will be observed from Omak to Waterville.
Current NBM probabilities for gusts 45 to 50 mph sit above 60
percent for Ephrata and Moses Lake, and above 80 percent for Omak. A
Wind Advisory has been issued from 5am this morning through 8pm
tonight.

Potential Wind Impacts for Wednesday:
*Rough water on area lakes: Water bodies are cold this time of year.
The lakes of central Washington like Banks, Potholes, Moses, and
Roosevelt will be dangerous on Wednesday with sustained winds of 20
to 25 mph and gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Cold water kills folks in
Washington every year making Wednesday a potentially dangerous day
for medium to large sized water bodies dangerous.
*Grass Fires: Even though green grass emerging region-wide, there
will be concerns for wildfires Wednesday. With relative humidity as
low as 15 to 25 percent in the afternoon and early evening,
concentrations of dead grass from last year`s growth will be capable
of carrying fire.
*Blowing Dust: Over the years, the fields around Moses Lake have
generated dust in March and April as they are being planted or
prepped for planting. Dust this time of year is usually patchy, but
can lead to very poor visibility adjacent to recently worked fields.

Thursday: As the trough moves eastward and out of Washington, breezy
winds will continue into Thursday, with wind gusts near 20 mph
expected in the afternoon hours. The northern Idaho Panhandle will
see more widespread areas of breezy gusts, particularly from
Sandpoint down to Post Falls and the Coeur d`Alene area. Relative
humidities will still be low, so the potential for grass fires
continues. Additionally, the cold front and winds will make
temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning very chilly, with
sub-freezing temperatures anticipated in the early morning hours of
Thursday.

Friday through Saturday night: In the wake of the strong trough,
high pressure will move into the area, warming temperatures to back
around normal. While Friday morning will be chilly again, with lows
near freezing, Saturday morning will see a jump in temperatures to
the high 30s and low 40s. High temperatures will be in the low to
mid 60s. Through Saturday night, dry conditions are expected. The
arrival of a cold front on Saturday night will bring elevated wind
gusts to the western portion of the forecast area, with Wenatchee,
Waterville, Leavenworth, and Chelan anticipating wind gusts up to 35
mph.

Sunday through Wednesday: A weaker trough will move through northern
Washington beginning Sunday, bringing unsettled weather back to the
forecast area through the extended period. Some precipitation is
anticipated with this trough, but will mostly be limited to mountain
precipitation due to orographic lift. Due to much of the area not
seeing any significant precipitation through the near and extended
forecast period, the Climate Prediction Center has us at near normal
precipitation trending downward to below normal precipitation for
the 6-10 Day Outlook. For the 8-14 Day Outlook, the outlook has the
area anticipating near normal precipitation. Temperatures will
remain near normal and winds will be light. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A
strong trough moving through will bring strong northerly winds to
TAF sites, but particularly to the Okanogan Valley and Waterville
Plateau, impacting airports such as Omak, Grand Coulee, Moses
Lake, and Ephrata. KGEG-KSFF-KMWH-KPUW-KLWS are starting to see
winds increase. KCOE- KEAT will see winds increase a bit later.
All TAF sites but KSFF- KEAT will see wind gusts up to 30kts
through 02Z. Through the windiest areas, wind gusts up to 40kts
are anticipated.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through 18z Wednesday and moderate confidence in
conditions remaining VFR for the rest of the TAF period. While
winds will be strong enough for blowing dust, it will be very
localized and confidence in impacting TAF sites is very low. MWH
is the site most likely to be impacted by blowing dust this time
of year due to crop planting in the area.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  30  58  33  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  60  28  56  31  61  36 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  30  54  31  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       68  36  61  36  65  40 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       58  27  60  29  64  36 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      58  28  54  29  59  36 /  40  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        58  31  51  31  56  37 /  40  20  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     66  34  64  34  68  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      67  38  63  39  68  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           63  30  65  35  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Okanogan Valley-
     Waterville Plateau.

&&

$$