320
FXUS66 KOTX 301145
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Winds will be breezy Sunday afternoon with a renewed chance of
showers and thunderstorms for northeast Washington and north
Idaho. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures continue through
early next week, followed by drier and much warmer weather by the
end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tomorrow: Elevated showers have brought some rains to the
Inland Northwest tonight, but a dry low level atmosphere has limited
accumulations largely below 0.10". The best chances for additional
rainfall through this morning are southeast Washington, the Idaho
Panhandle, and the Cascades. Watching the potential for
thunderstorms later today, particularly north and east of Spokane.
Thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning,
small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Some guidance indicates the
potential for an inch of rain where thunderstorms may train in
northern Pend Oreille County and northern Bonner/Boundary County.
This area can handle rains better than most other places in the
Inland Northwest, so flash flooding potential is fairly low. Creeks
and small streams may have flashy responses with this amount of rain
We`ll also have to monitor the Kootenai Complex burn scar from 2022
despite being a low risk burn scar. Temperatures today will be in
the 70s and 80s.

Thunderstorm potential returns Monday as we remain in an
conditionally unstable airmass. Northeastern Washington and the
northern Panhandle again have the best shot at additional
thunderstorm activity Monday. Expecting very little changes in
temperatures tomorrow. /Butler

Tuesday through Saturday: Breezy winds are expected Tuesday and
Tuesday evening, with gusts up to 30 mph across the Waterville
Plateau and areas near Wenatchee. Lingering chances for showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible over far northeastern WA and the
the northern ID Panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday with near normal
daytime temperatures persisting.

A warming and drying trend is then anticipated for Thursday through
the end of the week under strengthening high pressure. Afternoon
highs for Friday and Saturday are forecast to run about 10 degrees
above normal. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The heavier shower activity is east of all of the TAF
sites. There will be another resurgence in showers and
thunderstorm chances this afternoon. The thunderstorms have the
highest risk north and east of the TAF sites, but there will still
be some risk over GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS. Winds will also be gusty
in the afternoon, gusting near 15-25 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at our airport through the
period, with low confidence in MVFR conditions in heavier showers.
If there is MVFR conditions the risk looks higher near GEG/SFF/COE.
General aviation pilots will need to monitor radar for showers
and thunderstorms Sunday.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  80  55  81  53 /  30   0  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  77  53  77  53  78  52 /  50  10  20   0   0   0
Pullman        77  52  75  51  77  50 /  30   0  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       87  61  86  59  88  58 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       75  45  78  45  80  47 /  70  30  30   0  10   0
Sandpoint      72  50  73  50  76  49 /  70  30  50  10  10  10
Kellogg        72  55  73  55  74  54 /  70  20  20  10  10   0
Moses Lake     87  55  86  55  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  60  82  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           84  54  85  54  88  55 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$