400
FXUS66 KOTX 272308
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
408 PM PDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and unsettled weather will occur today through early next
week with several rounds of showers, with snow returning to the
mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thursday and Friday: A deep low off the northwest coast will
continue to influence the weather through the next two days as it
remains quasi-stationary and gradually weakens. The Inland
Northwest will be under a moist south to southwest flow aloft and
allow for embedded impulses to move through. Since temperatures
are and will continue to be much cooler compared to this time
yesterday (5 to 20 degrees cooler), instability is very limited.
Models are projecting SBCAPE over southeast portion of our
forecast area (southeast Washington, southern Idaho Panhandle)
between 100-500 J/kg this afternoon and a bit more widespread
Friday afternoon. Precipitation will continue to be showery today
and expand in coverage for Friday. For today, given some
instability and strong winds aloft providing 35-50 knots of 0-6km
shear in the southeast, this is where the best chances (15 to 25%)
for isolated thunderstorms exist. Best chances will be across the
Blues, Palouse, L-C Valley, but also includes Adams, Lincoln,
Spokane, and Kootenai counties with less confidence. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours, gusty winds,
and small hail or graupel, but severe thunderstorms are not
expected. Snow levels will gradually lower to 4000 feet over the
Cascades and 4700-5000 feet over the Idaho Panhandle into Friday,
supporting snow over the mountains with these showers. /vmt

Saturday to Thursday: The Inland NW will remain in an active
pattern with several waves, of varying intensity, slip by with
periodic rain and mountain snow chances. Saturday a weakening wave
will be shifting, providing some precipitation chances around the
mountains and, in the afternoon, around the eastern third of WA
and lower ID. We briefly dry out late Saturday night into early
Sunday. Then later Sunday and especially into Monday into Monday
evening a more organized wave moves in. Slight precipitation
chances linger near the mountains Sunday afternoon and evening,
then expand out overnight and become likely throughout the region
Monday. A tenth to a quarter inch of rain is possible in the
lowlands; 1 to 3 inches is possible around the mountain passes,
locally up to 5 near Stevens Pass. Additionally there will be a
chance for thunderstorms over southeast WA through the central and
southern ID Panhandle, with the wave moving by interacting with a
couple hundred J/kg of CAPE.

Monday overnight into Tuesday the threat of precipitation will
continue, but the higher risk will start to retreat to the
mountains and further wane into Tuesday night. A cooler period
will mean the potential for a rain/snow mix in the lowlands during
the night/early morning hours. Light snow will continue to be a
risk in the mountains, though emphasis on light. As we head into
Wednesday and Thursday model agreement starts to falter. Overall
they bring another developed low into the region, but timing and
track are all over the place. Regardless of those uncertainties,
look for increasing precipitation chances in this period too.
Thursday right now look like the wetter day. Temperatures still
support a rain/snow mix in the lowland during the night/early
morning hours and rain in the afternoon. Snow in the mountains
looks light, with a couple inches possible. If the set-up changes
or become more consistent some models support some risk for
t-storms. Right not the models are too all over the place to
support putting it in the freakiest right now.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal, with Sunday
the warmest day ahead of the next organized system with highs in
the 50s to mid-60s and Tuesday the coolest with highs in the upper
40s and 50s. Lows will largely be in the upper 20s and 30s,
except Sunday night/Monday AM ahead of the incoming system when
lows will be in the 30s and low 40s.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Widepsread VFR conditions this afternoon. Radar reveals
showers across far eastern Washington. Thunderstorms have
primarily remained in Oregon but CAMs continue to show isolated
cells tracking northeast through southeast Washington/southern
Idaho Panhandle through the Spokane area and the central
Panhandle through the evening. Best instability is across the
southeast with MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg. Not expecting thunderstorms
to be strong, but wind gusts up to 40kt and small hail look to be
the primary hazard if storms occur. After sunset, isolated
showers will continue through the evening with coverage gradually
decreasing. Showers coverage will expand Friday morning across the
mountains and far eastern Washington. Better chances (60-80%) for
MVFR conditions with the showers Friday morning across GEG- SFF-
COE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence for
periods of showers through the TAF period is high, but confidence
in showers becoming thunderstorms is low. The best potential for
thunderstorms will be across the southeast forecast area with PUW
and LWS carrying a 15 to 25 percent chance between 00-04Z.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  54  35  52  34  57 /  70  80  10  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  41  52  35  51  34  56 /  80  90  30  30  10  10
Pullman        42  51  36  48  32  55 /  70  90  30  30  10   0
Lewiston       48  59  42  56  37  61 /  60  80  50  30  10   0
Colville       37  52  32  52  30  56 /  80  90  40  40  10  10
Sandpoint      40  49  36  49  34  54 /  90 100  50  50  20  20
Kellogg        42  48  38  46  36  52 /  90  90  40  50  20  20
Moses Lake     43  59  35  58  33  61 /  60  20   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      43  56  36  56  36  57 /  60  30   0  10   0   0
Omak           43  57  35  57  34  58 /  70  60  30  20  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$