093
FXUS66 KOTX 061130
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
430 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures arrive Monday and continue into at least
  Wednesday.

- Winds increasing with elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions Tuesday, especially in Central WA

- Gusty winds and dry region-wide Wednesday with elevated to
  critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAT RISK INCREASING THIS WEEK. WINDY WITH INCREASED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

Sunday - Wednesday:  The main concerns going into the new week
will be heat and fire weather. High pressure will begin to build
into the region over the next few days with temperatures
warming roughly 5 degrees each consecutive day, peaking on
Tuesday in the 90s to lower 100s. This has been well advertised
for several days within the the ensemble forecast suites and
confidence continues to grow. This will put the Inland NW within
broad moderate heat risk category by Monday and moderate to
locally major heat risk by Tuesday with major focusing on the
warmest locations within the Snake River Valley, southwestern
Basin, and Columbia River around Chelan, Wenatchee, and Priest
Rapids where triple digit heat will be accompanied by lows near
70F. The good news is the heat wave is short-lived with 10
degrees of cooling arriving by Wednesday. The not so good news
is this will come at the cost of increased winds and potential
for critical fire weather conditions.

A deep low will begin to sag into the Pac NW by as early as Tuesday
afternoon-evening then usher a mostly dry cold front through on
Wednesday. The arrival of this low is trending earlier than
advertised 24 hours and leading to increasing concern given TUE
will be the hottest and driest day. Winds will start to pickup
through the afternoon across much of the open ag country with
speeds of 8 to 15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph. Locally stronger
winds materialize through the Cascade Gaps and spill into the
Western Basin and Waterville Plateau where sustained wind speeds
of 15-20 mph are now advertised via the NBM mean winds by late
afternoon. This is accompanied by gusts of 25-30 mph for
locations like Wenatchee, Waterville, Chelan, and southern
portions of Okanogan County. If this trend continues, this will
align with humidity levels in the low to mid teens and temps in
the upper 90s and potential for several hours of critical fire
weather conditions. Outside of Central WA, wind gusts will be
lighter and in the 15-20 mph range which is below critical
thresholds still problematic for any new fire starts given the
hot temperatures and low humidity in the forecast. The hot, dry,
windy index is solidly in the 90-95th percentile for these
aforementioned communities in Central WA.

By Wednesday, cold advection overtakes the entire NW with widespread
windy conditions. 850H winds of 25-30kts and a 18mb pressure
gradient from PDX to GPI suggest a classic strong wind event for
July standards and very concerning for fire weather conditions.
Temperatures cool roughly 10-12 degrees from TUE but remain in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. The incoming system does have a tap
of higher precipitable moisture and marine air will begin
flooding inland with an upward trend in humidity values however
with generally poor recoveries Wednesday morning and RH still in
the 20-30% range, it is conceivable the enhanced winds will
overcome the higher RH and deliver another day of elevated to
critical fire weather conditions but on a more widespread level.
Rapid height rises in the wake of the incoming trof also
support the trof taking a turn to the southeast with time late
Wednesday or Wednesday night which could result in shifting
winds from the west and southwest to the northwest or even
north. If there are new fires, it will be prudent to watch this
forecast closely and how/when this wind shift may arrive as it
will also bring a punch of drier air and continued gusts 20+
mph.

As for any precipitation or thunderstorms...we will be watching
two areas. One is a ribbon of elevated instability coming up
through NE Oregon ahead of the low Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. There is a 20% chance that this moisture and
threat for elevated thunderstorms skirts through far SE WA and
NC Idaho. The second area will be convection along the Canadian
Border on Wednesday afternoon under the upper-level cold pool.
Far NE WA and N ID will be areas that come with the highest risk
for these convective cells. The Cascade Crest will receive some
showers from this cold front with a 40% chance for wetting rain
at the immediate crest.

Thursday - weekend: Thursday into next weekend: Details for late
week heading into the weekend are uncertain as models suggest a
progressive pattern with periods of ridging and troughs.
General consensus is for a dip in the temperatures around
Thursday then warming back up for 1-3 days before another trough
passage. Models are struggling with the timing and depth of
these waves with 20% of the ensembles showing the next trough on
Saturday and 50% on Sunday. If it is delayed, temperatures
could trend warmer than forecast, earlier would trend cooler. As
such, there remains a 10-15 degree spread in potential max
temps and ensemble means are averaging this toward temps just
slightly warmer than normal or near normal. As each warming
period breaks down, it is likely that there will be periods of
winds and potential for elevated fire weather conditions. The
synoptic pattern is not very conducive to much in the way of
precipitation for the Inland NW. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Bands of midlevel clouds are passing through the
region at this hour, otherwise VFR skies are expected through
the TAF period with generally light winds. Main winds near 10kts
will be locally around KEAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy low
clouds or fog is possible between Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry
where heavier rains fell into Saturday. Current observations
indicate Sandpoint is near saturation. Any fog will burn off
quickly Sunday morning./sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        86  56  91  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  83  56  90  60  95  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        82  52  89  57  93  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       91  62  97  66 103  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       84  48  90  51  95  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      81  51  86  54  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        81  59  86  63  92  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     89  57  96  61 101  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      90  65  96  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           89  59  95  61  99  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$