026
FXUS66 KOTX 101149
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
349 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today a passing weather system will bring brief snow to most of
the region except for the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle where
moderate accumulations are forecast in the mountains. Winds will
be locally breezy as well this afternoon. Saturday and possibly
Sunday have a good chance of being sunny across central and parts
of eastern Washington. Monday through Wednesday will be dry across
the region as high pressure builds in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A fast moving cold front will quickly sweep across the
region from west to east. Precipitable water at 150-170% of normal
with the frontal passage, combined with a moist boundary layer
with stratus over the region, along with lift associated with the
front passage will produce precipitation for most of the region.
Swift mid level westerly flow will limit precipitation amounts in
the lee of the Cascades for places like Winthrop, Omak, Chelan,
Wenatchee, and Moses Lake with POP`s limited to chance. The front
will reach the Cascades early this morning in Central WA, with
nearly all areas at or below freezing. Model soundings support
snow, except around the Moses Lake and Wenatchee areas where
brief light freezing rain may mix in. The front then tracks into
Eastern WA/N Idaho during the late morning and afternoon with
precip type falling as snow in most areas, except rain below 2000
feet across SE Washington and the LC Valley. The brief duration of
the precipitation will limit snow amounts to less than 1" for
towns across Eastern WA, but the ID Panhandle will benefit from
post frontal upslope flow and instability as 500mb temperatures
fall to near -30C. This will give an added boost to snow amounts
especially the Central Panhandle Mountains with 4-7" forecast
above 2500 feet which includes Fourth of July and Lookout Passes.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from noon to 10 PM this
evening. The Cascades will also benefit from post-frontal upslope
snow showers with 8-12" forecast for Stevens Pass where a Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect.

Behind the front breezy west winds will develop on the Waterville
Plateau, Blue Mountains, and Palouse with gusts up to 35 MPH. The
post-frontal mixing is expected to allow temperatures to warm
around the Wenatchee area, down toward Vantage and Beverly as high
temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s.

Overnight tonight through Saturday Night: The flow aloft becomes
north to northwest with minor mid level waves tracking through the
area. This may continue to produce snow showers near the Cascade
crest, Central Panhandle Mountains, and Camas Prairie where there
will be an added contribution of low level upslope flow. But
amounts are expected to be on the light side. Some drying in the
boundary layer behind the front will allow for a better
opportunity for some sun to be seen across Central and Eastern
Washington on Saturday while the ID Panhandle will likely hold on
to mostly cloudy skies. JW

Sunday through Thursday: The extended period looks largely dry
from central WA to northern ID as an offshore ridge eventually
shifts inland next week. However, enough moisture and instability
remain on Sunday to allow for light showers across the central Idaho
panhandle. In all, afternoon temps shouldn`t stray too far from
daily norms, though overnight lows will likely cool to some of our
chilliest readings thus far in what has been a milder than normal
winter. Winds to be generally light and areas of fog/low stratus are
likely to persist. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A frontal system will push across the region today off
of the eastern Pacific. This system has increased the easterly
gradient over the Idaho Panhandle into the Spokane Area and
Palouse region, with VFR conditions while moisture remains remain
banked up into the Cascades with low stratus and IFR/MVFR ceilings
from KEAT-KMWH-KOMK. Cold front will sweep across the region
today bringing snow to most terminals, except for a chance of a
light freezing rain and snow mix to KEAT/KMWH, and rain for KLWS.
Low clouds look to be scoured out behind the front with breezy
westerly winds. A period of low level wind shear is expected at
KPUW in the afternoon before winds mix to the surface.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high
confidence that CIGS will lower to at least MVFR for
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW as easterly boundary layer winds switch to
west-southwest between 18z-20z. There is high confidence snow
will develop at KCOE/KPUW, and moderate confidence for KGEG/KSFF.
There is low confidence in light freezing rain and snow for
KEAT/KMWH between 14z-19z. There is high confidence that KEAT/KMWH
will improve to VFR conditions this afternoon. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  29  36  26  32  22 /  70  20   0   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  34  28  35  27  34  22 /  90  40  10  10  10   0
Pullman        36  31  35  29  34  25 /  90  50  10  10  20   0
Lewiston       43  36  45  33  41  30 /  90  50  10  10  10   0
Colville       32  24  36  22  33  15 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      33  28  33  26  32  20 / 100  40  10   0  10   0
Kellogg        36  29  33  27  33  22 / 100  80  30  10  30   0
Moses Lake     40  30  42  28  38  23 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      41  30  42  28  40  25 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           38  27  38  25  36  20 /  30   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 10 PM PST this
     evening for Central Panhandle Mountains.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM PST
     Saturday for Western Chelan County.

&&

$$