719
FXUS66 KOTX 010951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will
recur through Wednesday. A drier and much warmer pattern will set
up by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: Daily terrain based shower and
thunderstorms continue but the areal coverage decreases day over
day in the Inland Northwest. Another weak 500 mb shortwave just
off the coast of WA will assist the formation of showers and
thunderstorms in the northern mountains later this morning and
into the afternoon. Models suggest the best chance for
thunderstorms are along and north of highway 20 near the WA/ID
border (40% chance). Again, thunderstorms will be capable of brief
heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds. Yet another shortwave
riding on top of a strong ridge forming over the Pacific will
bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to northeastern
Washington and north Idaho Tuesday and Wednesday (20% chance).
Temperatures through Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s. Winds
will also be breezy especially in the Cascade gaps gusting up to
30 mph in the evening hours. /butler

Thursday through Sunday: A building high pressure ridge will take
shape across the northwestern U.S. late in the week. This will
lead to dry and warming conditions for Independence Day into the
weekend. Afternoon highs for Friday and the weekend are forecast
to run about 10+ degrees above normal. Winds will be rather light
for most locations, with gusts generally remaining below 20 mph.
/KD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The active showers and thunderstorms which impacted most
of eastern WA and north ID this afternoon and evening will decrease
through midnight. Except for KCOE the remaining TAF sites will
remain clear of them for the night. The main problem overnight will
revolve around the rain which fell today. Some heavy amounts were
reported at KSFF, KCOE and the valleys over NE WA and N ID and
suspect fog will form overnight as the higher clouds clear and winds
abate. Confidence is high the fog will form north of the KCOE and
SFF but not as confident for the airports themselves. However I
figure that patchy shallow fog will form over the next couple hours
and could expand into the early morning hours. I went for IFR
conditions with a much smaller chance for KGEG. VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites on Monday, however showers and a few
thunderstorms will reform tomorrow afternoon. Most of these will be
N and E of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE and should dissipate by mid-evening. fx

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions for KPUW/KLWS/KMWH/KEAT with low to moderate
confidence for IFR conditions due to fog/stratus for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  54  81  52  82  53 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  77  52  77  51  78  52 /  20  10   0   0  10   0
Pullman        76  51  76  50  76  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  59  87  58  86  59 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       79  45  79  45  79  45 /  50  10  10  10  10   0
Sandpoint      74  49  75  49  74  48 /  50  20  10  20  30  10
Kellogg        73  54  73  52  73  54 /  20  10   0   0  20  10
Moses Lake     86  54  87  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      83  57  82  57  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           86  54  87  55  86  56 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$