020
FXUS66 KOTX 131202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
502 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow decreasing by late this morning.

- Gusty north to northeast winds today. Cold wind chills in the
  teens to single digits in the mountains this morning.

- Colder overnight low temperatures Monday Night through
  Wednesday Night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will bring gusty north and northeast winds with snow over
the Central Cascades decreasing by late in the morning. Dry
weather with fall like temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Thursday with colder overnight lows. Wet weather and breezy
winds looks to return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A closed low off the northern Oregon coast and a 1028mb
surface high over Alberta will result in gusty north to
northeast winds over the area today. As the low drops south this
morning and further from the area, and drier northeast winds
takes over with precipitation coming to an end. Yet with the low
in close proximity this morning, the low level north-northeast
winds will upslope into the Blewett Pass and Mission Ridge area
where heavy snow amounts are forecast through the morning. Total
snow amounts are expected to range from 8-12" for Blewett Pass
with over a foot for Mission Ridge. The north-northeast winds
will be strongest in the wind channeled areas of the Okanogan
Valley, Purcell Trench in North Idaho, and out over the Columbia
Basin. Wind gusts of 30-40 MPH remain in the forecast for these
areas.

Tonight through Thursday: The low continues to drop south to
near San Francisco, CA overnight before tracking east through
Nevada, SE Idaho, and NW Wyoming Wednesday into Thursday. This
combined with an upper ridge off the coast will provide a dry
north to northeast flow over the region. Pressure gradients will
also ease allowing for colder overnight lows. Frost will occur
for most areas each night, and some frost advisories may be
needed for areas still within the climatological growing season.

Friday through Sunday: Ensembles are coming into better
agreement heading toward next weekend. On Friday a short wave
trough passes mainly north of the area with a chance of showers
limited to mainly the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle. On
Saturday a short wave ridge moves over the area ahead of a
stronger system developing off the coast of British Columbia.
Thus precipitation chances remain low, but this changes heading
into Saturday Night and Sunday as a stronger frontal system
moves through. This will bring increased chances for more
widespread rain and high mountain snow. Washington Pass has a
70% chance of seeing at least 2 inches on Sunday, but odds are
lower for other passes given rather high snow levels around
5000-6000 feet. Breezy winds are also possible with this frontal
system. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Low pressure will continue to drop southward through
the day, before high pressure starts to build in late tonight
into Tuesday morning. Moisture wrapped up in this feature will
keep light rain chances going near GEG/SFF and MWH/EAT this
morning. A wave rotating around the eastern periphery of the
low may also lead to some renewed precipitation over
southeastern WA/lower ID later this morning to early afternoon,
near PUW/LWS. This morning look for localized MVFR conditions,
some improvement after 14-16Z to VFR, but that renewed
precipitation band will bring increased swath of clouds from
16-22Z and brief MVFR conditions are possible again near
PUW/LWS, possibly reaching as far north as GEG/SFF/COE. Winds
will be breezy out of the north to northeast, gusting near 20-30
mph through the late afternoon to early evening, except near
LWS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence
in MVFR conditions this morning over GEG/SFF/COE/EAT/MWH before
15-18Z. Low to moderate confidence in MVFR conditions near
PUW/LWS between 16-21Z with clouds and -ra chance wrapping in
through that period. Low confidence in -rasn early this morning
around GEG/SFF/COE.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        50  31  56  32  59  32 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  31  55  33  58  33 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        54  29  56  31  54  31 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       58  38  59  40  60  39 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       51  18  56  20  60  21 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      46  26  53  29  56  29 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Kellogg        46  31  54  35  57  36 /  20  10   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     56  33  60  30  61  31 /  60   0   0   0  10   0
Wenatchee      52  36  59  38  63  40 /  80   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           56  32  60  32  62  35 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
     Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$