403
FXUS66 KOTX 030502
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will
recur through Wednesday. Confidence is increasing in a substantial
long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. It is expected to
last through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Extended period of very hot and dry conditions starting
Saturday...

Tonight and Wednesday: The Inland Northwest will be under the
influence of an exiting trough and strengthening ridge for the
period. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will generally be
over North Idaho. The main impact from the thunderstorms will be
lightning and brief heavy rain. Afternoon winds will be breezy
across the Basin as elevated winds mix down to the surface.
Sustained winds will be in the teens with gusts near 25 MPH. The
Cascades Gaps could see stronger gusts into the 30s. Highs will
rise a few degrees warmer each day. Highs will be in the upper 70s
and 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday through Tuesday: The region will be under a strengthening
ridge for the period. It will usher in several days of hot, dry
conditions. Winds will generally be light with mild increases from
the afternoon mixing. Gusts will stay below 20 MPH. The main
concern is the prolonged dry, warming period for most of the
region. Temperatures will steadily climb through the weekend and
start of next week. The highs are expected in the upper 80s and
90s. There is the possibility of triple digits across the Basin
starting Friday and lasting through the end period. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 50s to low 70s. The long dry, hot
pattern and 4th of July holiday could make for bad combination.
Ensembles are not bringing much in the way of any relief through
the period. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Scattered showers and isolated t-storms will dissipate
in coverage after dark over NE WA and N ID. Some lingering
showers may drift south by the Spokane to Coeur d`Alene area, but
for the most part it is expected to be dry at TAF sites. Gusty
winds will abate. However some localized LLWS is possible,
including near MWH and PUW. Some patchy fog is possible in the
sheltered northeast valleys later overnight/early Wednesday from
the rain showers. TAF sites are projected to be VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions. Lows confidence in dying showers slipping south by
GEG, SFF, COE late this evening/overnight.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        52  83  54  87  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  78  53  82  55  88 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        50  77  51  83  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       58  86  60  92  62  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       45  80  45  84  49  91 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      50  75  48  80  50  86 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        53  73  55  80  58  85 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  88  55  92  59  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      57  87  60  92  64  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           55  86  57  92  59  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin
     Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

&&

$$