356
FXUS66 KOTX 140512
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1012 PM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder overnight low temperatures Monday Night through
  Wednesday Night.

- Unsettled weather returns this weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with fall like temperatures are expected through
Thursday with colder overnight lows. Wet weather and breezy
winds looks to return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tonight: The strong low pressure sitting just over the
Oregon coast will begin moving southward down the California coast.
A surface high just north of Montana has created a tight pressure
gradient with the low, which has resulted in gusty winds through
this morning. As the low moves southward and the high moves
eastward, the gradient will relax and wind gusts will decrease
throughout the day. There is no further rain anticipated apart from
some slight chances of continued precipitation in the Northeast
Blues and the Idaho Panhandle mountains.

Tuesday through Thursday: Main impacts during these few days will be
cold overnight temperatures. As the skies clear out and promote
radiational cooling, low temperatures across the forecast area will
drop to near or below freezing. In particular, the Moses Lake area
is still within its climatological growing season and is on track to
see near or at freezing temperatures through Thursday morning. A
Frost Advisory has been issued for this area from 12am-9am tomorrow
through Thursday morning. An upper level ridge off the coast will
allow for some higher heights to move through the area, warming
temperatures to the mid to high 50s, which is normal for this time
of year. PWATs during these days will drop down to 0.25-0.50", which
is only 55-70% of normal, indicating very dry conditions mid-week.

Friday through Monday: A shortwave trough will pass through the
state of Washington Thursday night into Friday morning. This will
result in breezy to gusty downsloping winds off the leeside of the
Cascades, which will then spill into the basin through the day.
Anticipated wind gusts will be 20-25kts. These winds will relax by
Saturday. PWATs with this shortwave passage will rise to just at
100%. However, chances of precipitation with this wave will be low
and mainly confined to mountain areas via orographic lift. Another
low pressure system will drop into the area Saturday into Sunday,
bringing a more potent surge of moisture to the area with higher
chances of precipitation as PWATs rise to 150-200% of normal. NBM
probabilities indicate that areas apart from the Moses Lake and
upper Columbia Basin have a 30% chance or higher of seeing 0.25" of
rain from Saturday through Monday morning. Winds will also increase
with this frontal passage. Ensemble models are showing general
agreement for this setup, with 82% of clusters favoring low heights
over the forecast area on Sunday. We will keep an eye on models as
they resolve this weekend`s system, but signals are leaning toward
another unsettled weekend. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A north to northeast pressure gradient will continue
into Tuesday, although weaker compared to Monday with sustained
winds generally ranging from 5-13 kts. Drier air will continue
to move in, leading to clearing skies by Tuesday morning. Mid
level clouds will increase over SE Washington and the Lewiston
area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. JW

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        30  57  33  58  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  30  57  33  59  33  57 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Pullman        29  55  31  55  30  57 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Lewiston       38  59  40  60  39  61 /  10  10   0  10  10   0
Colville       18  57  20  59  21  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      25  54  30  58  30  55 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Kellogg        31  55  35  57  36  56 /  10   0  10  10  10   0
Moses Lake     33  60  30  61  30  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      36  58  38  62  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           32  61  33  63  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory through 9 AM Thursday for Moses Lake Area.

ID...None.

&&

$$