361
FXUS66 KOTX 130742
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1242 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow decreasing by late this morning.

- Gusty north to northeast winds today. Cold wind chills in the
  teens to single digits in the mountains this morning.

- Colder overnight low temperatures Monday Night through
  Wednesday Night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will bring gusty north and northeast winds with snow over
the Central Cascades decreasing by late in the morning. Dry
weather with fall like temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Thursday with colder overnight lows. Wet weather and breezy
winds looks to return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A closed low off the northern Oregon coast and a 1028mb
surface high over Alberta will result in gusty north to northeast
winds over the area today. As the low drops south this morning and
further from the area, and drier northeast winds takes over
with precipitation coming to an end. Yet with the low in close
proximity this morning, the low level north-northeast winds will
upslope into the Blewett Pass and Mission Ridge area where
heavy snow amounts are forecast through the morning. Total snow
amounts are expected to range from 8-12" for Blewett Pass with
over a foot for Mission Ridge. The north-northeast winds will be
strongest in the wind channeled areas of the Okanogan Valley,
Purcell Trench in North Idaho, and out over the Columbia Basin.
Wind gusts of 30-40 MPH remain in the forecast for these areas.

Tonight through Thursday: The low continues to drop south to near
San Francisco, CA overnight before tracking east through Nevada,
SE Idaho, and NW Wyoming Wednesday into Thursday. This combined
with an upper ridge off the coast will provide a dry north to
northeast flow over the region. Pressure gradients will also ease
allowing for colder overnight lows. Frost will occur for most
areas each night, and some frost advisories may be needed for
areas still within the climatological growing season.

Friday through Sunday: Ensembles are coming into better agreement
heading toward next weekend. On Friday a short wave trough passes
mainly north of the area with a chance of showers limited to
mainly the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle. On Saturday a short
wave ridge moves over the area ahead of a stronger system
developing off the coast of British Columbia. Thus precipitation
chances remain low, but this changes heading into Saturday Night
and Sunday as a stronger frontal system moves through. This will
bring increased chances for more widespread rain and high mountain
snow. Washington Pass has a 70% chance of seeing at least 2 inches
on Sunday, but odds are lower for other passes given rather high snow
levels around 5000-6000 feet. Breezy winds are also possible with
this frontal system. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Low pressure drops south along the Washington
coastline tonight. A clash of moisture from the south into
colder Canadian air from the north will result in widespread
precipitation across the Inland Northwest into tonight.
Widespread MVFR conditions is expected. Airports across the
region will mainly see rain with this low pressure system. Cold
air with increasing north to northeast winds will make an impact
tonight. This may result in a little bit of snow mixing in with
rain overnight including at KCOE and KGEG. Northerly winds will
be gusty through north Idaho, the Okanogan Valley, and over the
Columbia Basin overnight into Monday with gusts of 20-30 kts
common, and as strong as 35 kts at KOMK/KSZT KCOE by the morning
hours on Monday. IFR conditions with lowering ceilings may
occur overnight before the boundary layer dries out into Monday
morning with conditions becoming VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in MVFR conditions overnight for much of the region (along with
localized IFR conditions), except KPUW/KLWS where downslope
boundary layer winds should keep conditions VFR. JW

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        50  31  56  32  59  32 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  31  55  33  58  33 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        54  29  56  31  54  31 /  10   0   0  10  20  10
Lewiston       58  38  59  40  60  39 /  10  10  10  10  20  10
Colville       51  18  56  20  60  21 /  10   0   0   0  10   0
Sandpoint      46  26  53  29  56  29 /  10   0   0  10  10   0
Kellogg        46  31  54  35  57  36 /  20  10   0  10  20  10
Moses Lake     56  33  60  30  61  31 /  60   0   0   0  10   0
Wenatchee      52  36  59  38  63  40 /  80   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           56  32  60  32  62  35 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for
     Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-Western
     Okanogan County.

ID...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     Northern Panhandle.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$