134
FXUS66 KOTX 121009
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
309 AM PDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued afternoon showers and chances of thunderstorms
  through Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and wetter weather pattern sticks around into early next
week with several opportunities for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday: A cool and showery pattern will persist
through at least the first half of the week as we remain under a
cold upper level trough. Conditions Monday and Tuesday will be
similar to those on Sunday with steep lapse rates and CAPE values of
200 to 500 J/kg bringing convective showers and chances for
thunderstorms across much of the region. Areas with the highest
chances for thunderstorms Monday include the eastern third of WA and
the ID panhandle. By Tuesday, thunderstorm chances will mainly be
confined to the higher terrain of northeast WA from the Okanogan
Valley eastward to the WA/ID border. Wednesday will feature another
round of afternoon showers focused over the Cascade Crest, Northeast
WA, and the ID Panhandle, though the trough and associated
instability will have shifted south of our region, lessening chances
for thunderstorms.

Thursday through Sunday: Models are coming into better agreement on
a ridge of high pressure briefly building in on Thursday, bringing a
break from the showers. The break looks to be short-lived though, as
an unsettled troughing pattern will return Friday bringing more
chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Overall, conditions
will stay cool through the forecast period with afternoon
instability bringing showers and thunderstorms typical for this time
of year. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: A boundary will continue to shift east, while a low
moves in and moisture wraps around it. This will keep rain
chances alive over the east third of WA/ID through the next few
hours, becoming more isolated overnight around TAF sites.
Additional showers will develop through the day MOnday, first in
the southeast (PUW/LWS) and expanding into the Spokane/C`dA area
in the afternoon. Some isolated t-storms are possible. Look for
some MVFR conditions, improving to VFR through the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence in thunderstorms at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW.LWS. Moderate
confidence in MVFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW overnight/early
Monday. Low confidence in timing.


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        43  61  44  64  42  64 /  20  40  10  10  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  58  43  60  42  62 /  40  40  20  30  20  10
Pullman        39  55  41  59  40  61 /  30  30  10  20   0   0
Lewiston       46  63  47  67  45  68 /  40  30  10  20   0   0
Colville       38  64  40  66  37  66 /  40  60  40  30  20  10
Sandpoint      42  58  44  55  42  60 /  40  70  30  60  40  20
Kellogg        44  54  45  54  44  59 /  40  60  20  60  20  20
Moses Lake     46  70  43  72  41  70 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      49  71  48  69  45  70 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  69  44  66  42  67 /  30  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$