203
FXUS66 KOTX 262200
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
239 PM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A 30% chance of thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle Sunday.

-Rain for the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and eastern third of
 Washington Monday Night into Tuesday Morning.

-Sunday through Tuesday will feature seasonably breezy west
 winds.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather is expected through Monday except for a
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle. A
weak weather system moving through Monday Night into Tuesday
morning will bring rain to the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and
eastern third of Washington. Warmer and drier weather returns
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday: A split flow pattern will remain over
the region through the weekend with a closed low moving into
California, and a mid level trough passing through British
Columbia. This leaves the Inland NW in between these two
features for generally quiet weather with mild and dry
conditions. Although a conditionally unstable atmosphere will
remain, with afternoon heating leading to cumulus buildups over
the mountains. CAPE of 200-500 J/KG could lead to a few weak
short lived showers or thunderstorms mainly over the ID
Panhandle through this evening, with a better chance Sunday
afternoon with slightly better lift and instability over the
area. A cooler marine layer west of the Cascades with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s in contrast to the warmer
readings in the 70s in Central WA will promote breezy winds
through the Cascade gaps this weekend with gusts up to 30 MPH.
On Monday, a short wave ridge moves over the area for a dry day
and continued mild temperatures. JW

Monday night through Wednesday morning: As the cut-off low over the
US Southwest weakens, mostly dry and warm conditions will prevail
for much of the day through Monday afternoon before a weak shortwave
moves through the area as the day progresses. High temperatures will
drop slightly from Monday, but still hover a few degrees above
normal for this time of year, in the mid to high 60s. As the cold
front associated with the shortwave moves in, it will bring a chance
of afternoon and evening wetting rain and thunderstorms to far
eastern Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Rainfall will
be mostly light, with areas such as Spokane, Pullman, and Lewiston,
Coeur d`Alene, and Sandpoint projected to see less than a tenth of
an inch of rain through Tuesday morning. The lift generated from the
front will allow for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. However,
since surface- based CAPE values are low, 100-200 J/kg, and lapse
rates are moderate, around 7 deg C/km, any thunderstorms that do
form will likely be weak. Will keep an eye on thunderstorm potential
as more short-term models pick up on the convection in the coming
days. Winds in the Cascades, Waterville Plateau, and the Northeast
Blue mountains will be gusty Monday night and Tuesday night, with
wind gusts up to 35 mph anticipated.

Wednesday through Friday morning: As the shortwave moves out of the
area, ridging will occur over the state of Washington. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be nearly 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year if the current forecast pans out,
though there is disagreement in ensemble models. Low
temperatures will reach nearly 50 degrees on these days, and
conditions will be dry.

Friday through Saturday night: Through the extended forecast period,
trough off the coast of British Columbia will move inland Friday
afternoon and into Saturday, bringing with it a chance for
widespread rain. However, clusters disagree on where the lowest
heights will be. Should the trough stay relatively strong and deepen
heights over the area, rain totals hover between a tenth of an inch
and a quarter of an inch for far eastern Washington, the northern
Idaho panhandle, and the Cascades. For the Columbia Basin, Moses
Lake, and the Okanogan Valley and Highlands areas, rain totals stay
under a tenth of an inch of rain. Will keep an eye on this moving
forward. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions are anticipated across the region
through 18z Sunday. Cumulus buildups over SE Washington into the
Central Panhandle Mountains are also expected, with a 20% chance
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the mountains south
and east of KLWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at TAF sites through the
period. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  72  43  68  47  66 /   0  10  10   0  20  50
Coeur d`Alene  43  70  40  66  45  62 /   0  20  20   0  20  70
Pullman        43  64  41  63  45  60 /   0   0  10   0  20  70
Lewiston       48  71  46  71  50  67 /   0  10   0   0  10  60
Colville       37  73  36  71  43  67 /   0  20  10   0  30  60
Sandpoint      41  69  40  65  45  60 /  10  30  30   0  30  70
Kellogg        47  65  44  62  46  54 /  10  40  30  10  30  80
Moses Lake     46  76  45  74  48  72 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Wenatchee      48  73  48  72  51  69 /   0   0   0   0  20  10
Omak           45  75  43  74  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$