998
FXUS66 KOTX 281633
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
833 AM PST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and mild temperatures are expected through Sunday.
The forecast calls for chances of light rain and mountain snow
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be closer to average next
week with highs in the 40s and low 50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Friday through Sunday: Dry conditions, light winds, and afternoon
high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s will persist through Sunday
due to a ridge of high pressure remaining over the Inland Northwest.
As is often the case, the Lewiston-Clarkston Valley and the deep
central Columbia Basin including Ritzville, Mattawa, and Moses Lake
will be at the warm end of this range. Clear skies and light winds
will allow temperatures to cool to near or just below freezing each
night, and patchy fog development will be possible for the sheltered
valleys of northern WA and ID. Heading into Sunday we`ll see the
pattern begin to shift with a low pressure system on track to move
inland to our south. While models suggest the bulk of the moisture
associated with the low will remain in Oregon and California, some
of it will spin up into the Northwest, bringing light showers to the
Cascade crest, Blues, and central ID panhandle beginning Sunday
night. Temperatures Sunday afternoon will be 3 to 7 degrees cooler
than those on Friday and Saturday. /Fewkes

Monday and Tuesday: Over the next 7 days, Monday carries the
highest probabilities for precipitation at this time. The models
have trended further south with the upper low making landfall
along the West Coast this weekend. The track of the low 24 hours
ago looked like it would be through northern California and
Oregon. The latest ensembles favor central California and Nevada.
If this trend holds true, the low in the southern branch of the
Polar Jet will be too far south to generate much meaningful
precipitation Sunday. Our better shot will come with a clipper
type system in the northern branch diving down the spine of the
Canadian Rockies. The National Blend of Models (NBM) generates a
40 to 60 percent chance of light valley rain and mountain snow
Monday and Monday night over the Idaho Panhandle and a 20 to 30
percent chance for the eastern third of Washington. Mid-level
northwest flow will favor the ridges of southern Shoshone county
where up to a couple of inches of snow will be possible by Tuesday
morning above 4000 feet. If the timing of the ensemble mean holds
true, precipitation chances across north Idaho and the eastern
third of Washington will decrease through the day Tuesday. The
weak northerly push accompanying the clipper is expected to cool
our temperatures close to average for early March with highs in
the mid 40s in north Idaho to the low 50s in the Columbia Basin
and L-C Valley Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday: Temperatures should remain fairly
consistent (near average) through the end of the week. There is
decent ensemble agreement that the Pacific Northwest will remain
under the influence of a benign split flow pattern. There are
differences in the timing and track of weak disturbances over the
second half of the week. The NBM handles this by placing 20 to 40
percent chances of light rain and mountain snow across mainly
orographically favored areas like the Cascades and Idaho
Panhandle. Pretty typical stuff for early March. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High pressure will prevail with VFR conditions
throughout the region. Any localized fog/stratus will lift
quickly this morning. Winds will remain light and predominantly
out of the east. High cirrus will brush across the north. More
localized fog/stratus could develop in sheltered river valleys by
early Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high
confidence of VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is a
very low chance of IFR conditions in the KGEG/KCOE area by early
Saturday morning. /rfox.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  32  55  32  51  36 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  56  30  56  31  51  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        58  33  59  33  50  36 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       63  36  61  36  54  41 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Colville       52  30  53  31  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      49  31  50  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        53  34  58  33  51  37 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     60  31  58  33  54  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  35  51  37  52  39 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           51  32  50  34  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$