561
FXUS66 KOTX 061157
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
457 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week as high
pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest. It will be very warm
Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 80s. Weak
disturbances passing through mid to late week will bring small
chances for mountain showers and afternoon breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Saturday: The Inland Northwest will be in a broad
southwest flow aloft for the next several days as an upper level
ridge amplifies to the east and an upper level low in the Gulf of
Alaska weakens as it slowly migrates eastward. This will open the
door for a series of weak waves to move through the region over
the next couple of days. After a weak wave today brings passing
mid to high level clouds, the dry southwest flow will allow 850mb
temperatures to warm between to 14-18C on Monday, which equates to
high temperatures in into the upper 60s and 70s. There is near a
100 percent chance for places in the L-C valley such as Lewiston
to warm into the low 80s. Temperatures will remain warm into
Tuesday although will gradually cool as the PNW begins to become
more influenced by a broad longwave upper level trough. Models
continue to show weak fronts moving through the PNW on Tuesday and
then again Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF extreme forecast
index does not suggest these systems being very impactful, with
small chances for mountain preciptiation (less than 20 percent
chance) and afternoon breeziness. The NBM is pointing at
Wednesday`s winds to be slightly breezier compared to Tuesday with
a 30 to 50 percent chance for wind gusts over 30 mph for places
such as Ephrata, Coulee City, Spokane, Pullman, Pomeroy, and
Lewiston.

Ensembles continue to show an open wave moving through the PNW
between Friday and Saturday, although there still remains large
uncertainty on the strength of it as it moves through. A stronger
scenario (only supported by 15% of ensembles) would result in more
widespread precipitation across far eastern Washington and north
Idaho. The majority of ensembles only generate light precipitation
over the mountains. Regardless, this would bring a slight cooling
trend Thursday through Saturday. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites as high
pressure builds into the region. A weak passing system will bring
mid to high level clouds across central and northeastern
Washington this morning with skies clearing this afternoon and
evening. Patchy fog may develop in the northern valleys early
this morning particularly around Colville, Ione, Deer Park, and
Sandpoint.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high
for VFR conditions across the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  40  76  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  70  42  74  44  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        70  42  76  44  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       77  49  82  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       70  31  73  34  73  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      66  38  69  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        71  48  73  49  72  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     71  40  76  41  76  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71  48  75  51  75  49 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           72  43  75  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$