Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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769 FXUS66 KOTX 302233 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 333 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will piddle out after sunset tonight and skies will clear. Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will recur each afternoon through early next week. A drier and much warmer pattern will set up by the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Sunday: A sharp shortwave moving through aloft has brought a moist, unstable airmass over the Inland Northwest which has created a favorable environment for convection to develop this afternoon. We`re seeing several lines of showers and thunderstorms tracking through northeastern WA and northern ID bringing heavy rain, lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Storms are expected to continue into the evening and fizzle out after sunset. Areas expected to receive the highest rainfall amounts (upward of half an inch) by the end of the night include Boundary County, northern Pend Orielle County, and northern Bonner County. This area handles large amounts of rainfall better than the rest of the region, so the threat of flash flooding is low. Our insulating blanket of clouds will clear out overnight, and temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s - considerably cooler than last night. Monday and Tuesday: The first couple of days of the workweek will be fairly similar to today with temperatures rising into the 70s and 80s and a threat of showers developing each afternoon over northeastern WA and north ID. Thunderstorms embedded within the showers will be more isolated. Unlike this morning, we`ll begin Monday and Tuesday with blue skies. Cumulus clouds won`t develop until later in the day and will be more confined to the northern part of the region. Areas west and south of Spokane will stay mainly clear. Winds will be breezy both days for the Wenatchee area and over the Waterville Plateau with gusts up to 30 mph possible. /Fewkes Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure off the coast of Northern California will build a ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Models are in a good agreement. The Inland Northwest will be under a dry Northwest flow pattern. The only chance for precip for the period is over North Idaho on Wednesday. Moisture from a passing shortwave could bring some isolated shower activity to the area. Winds will generally be light with mild increases from the afternoon mixing. Gusts will stay below 20 MPH. The main concern is the prolonged dry, warming period for most of the region. Temperatures will steadily climb through the weekend. For Friday and the weekend, the highs are expected to the upper 80s and 90s. There is the possibility of triple digits for the Southwest Basin. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. The long dry, hot pattern and 4th of July holiday could make for bad combination. A weak system on Sunday will bring little reprieve from the heat as temperatures rebound back on Monday. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: This afternoon`s main line of showers and MVFR cumulus ceilings has moved into the northern ID Panhandle north and east of the TAF sites. There is a chance of a stray shower popping up and impacting a TAF site before the evening is over, but convective shower activity appears to be diminishing for the day so it looks unlikely. Skies will clear overnight. Shower activity tomorrow will be confined further north and east than what occurred today, so TAF sites are expected to remain VFR through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in GEG/SFF/COE/PUW staying VFR for the rest of the evening. Low confidence in a stray shower developing over a site before the evening is over resulting in MVFR conditions. High confidence in VFR conditions after sunset tonight and through the rest of the TAF period. General aviation pilots will need to monitor radar for showers and thunderstorms until tonight and again tomorrow beginning late in the morning. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 53 81 54 82 52 83 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 53 78 53 77 51 77 / 30 20 0 0 0 10 Pullman 52 76 51 77 50 78 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 85 59 87 58 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 45 79 45 79 45 79 / 30 50 0 10 0 10 Sandpoint 49 74 49 76 49 75 / 50 50 10 10 10 30 Kellogg 55 73 54 74 53 74 / 30 20 10 0 0 20 Moses Lake 56 86 54 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 60 82 57 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 54 86 54 87 55 87 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$