914
FXUS66 KOTX 020542
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
942 PM PST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Tuesday, especially in the Central
  Panhandle Mountains.

- Modifying temperatures and a transition of snow to rain late
  this week with breezy winds

- Moderate impacts from snow expected on the mountain passes
  late week into the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system pass tonight into Tuesday will bring light
snow, mainly to the Idaho Panhandle and extreme Eastern
Washington. Temperatures will modify and warm above normal late
this week. Unsettled late this week as well with snow
transitioning to rain in the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: The region will remain in a
northwesterly flow as a couple shortwave features drop by and
bring some snow to the region. A relatively weak shortwave has
been dropping in today, with some light snow spreading from west
to east. This feature will be exiting this afternoon and early
evening. The next deeper wave is already coming on its heels and
will drop in tonight through about mid-Tuesday, before exiting.
That will renew revitalize snow chances across the region
through tonight into Tuesday morning, with additional snow
accumulation. The higher accumulation period is expected
overnight through 7 to 10 AM, lingering a bit longer toward the
Central Panhandle and Camas Prairie and Blues.

Some moderate accumulations are forecast for the Central
Panhandle mountains and Camas Prairie, with the Camas Prairie
seeing the best chances developing toward Tuesday morning when
the flow turns more upslope there. Winter weather advisories are
in place for the Central Panhandle Mountain Zone now through 11
AM Tuesday and over the Camas Prairie above 3000 feet for 10 PM
tonight through 11 AM Tuesday. We will monitor the Camas
Prairie should the potential linger a bit longer into the
afternoon. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, locally to 6 are
forecast around the Central Panhandle and 1 to 3 on Camas
Prairie. Elsewhere across the eastern third of WA and ID total
snow accumulations from both waves are forecast to be around 0.3
to 1.0 inch, with locally up to 1.5-2 inches possible in
hillier areas around the WA/ID border and less around the L-C
Valley. Toward central WA snow accumulations are generally
expected to be a trace to maybe 0.2 inches, if anything
accumulates at all. Heading toward the Cascade crest 2-4 inches
is possible, including near Stevens Pass, with the best chance
for accumulations overnight and Tuesday AM.

Highs Tuesday will be in the 30s to low 40s. Lows will be in
the 20s, with some low 30s in the L-C Valley. Some lows in the
upper teens are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday AM in the
north.

Tuesday night to Wednesday: Weak high pressure briefly takes
control of the area and dries things out in a relative sense.
The northwesterly upslope flow will keep some snow chances alive
around the Cascade crest and the Idaho Panhandle mountain
zones. Elsewhere some low clouds/stratus and patchy fog are in
the forecast for this period.

Thursday through Monday:the pattern remains in an active
pattern, with multiple opportunities for precipitation. Thursday
to Saturday the area remains a northwesterly flow, with a
system enveloping the area through that period, while a more
westerly flow develops Saturday night into Monday with another
system coming in. With an active jet and moisture influx we will
see good chances for precipitation developing Thursday night
and becoming likely over much of the area Friday. The main
exception will be in the lee of the Cascade/central WA where the
flow will hold the potential back some. Precipitation chance
decline some Friday night into Saturday, not ending but the best
risk retreats to the mountains. Then the next system
revitalizes the precipitation potential Sunday and Monday.
Milder air will accompany these systems, pushing snow levels up.
Rain or a rain-snow mix will be possible over southern WA and
lower ID Thursday night, with mainly snow north and in the
mountains. Then heading into Friday onward snow levels rise to
around 4-5kft during the day, locally near 5-6kft Friday over
southern WA/lower ID on Friday itself. At night snow levels drop
to around 3-4kft.

Some moderate to heavy snow will be possible around the
mountain and some of the mountain passes with the Thursday night
Friday system, with the higher focus around the north Cascades,
near Washington Pass (but not really near Stevens or Snoqualmie
Pass) and around the Idaho Panhandle mountains, including
Lookout Pass. Then additional potential for moderate to heavy
mountain snow continues Saturday to Monday, including Stevens,
Washington and Lookout Pass. Details will still need fine-tuning
but some impact is expected if the forecast holds. The lowlands
could see some light accumulation around Thursday afternoon and
night, but generally less than an inch and in most cases less
than one-half inch.

Breezy conditions are also in the forecast for Friday to
Monday, with gusts in the 15-25 mph range possible. Locally
higher gusts are possible. There is model disagreement in the
details. For this period the NBM has a 30% chance of wind gusts
exceeding 40 MPH at Wenatchee and Pullman, and a 15% chance for
Spokane. Wenatchee has a 20% of gusts exceeding 50 mph.

Highs will be in the 30s to lows 40s Thursday, then highs will
be in the 40s Friday to Monday, with some lower 50s in the
deeper basin and L-C Valley. Lows will be the 20s Friday
morning, with some lower to mid-30s toward the L-C Valley.
Thereafter lows are forecast to be in the 20s around the
northern mountains and 30s over most other areas, save for some
low 40s from time to time near the L-C valley. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: The second wave of snow and precipitation is moving
southeastward and has mostly moved out of Washington, though
there may be some lingering snow at KPUW for the next couple
hours. For KGEG, snow has mostly stopped, with lingering snow at
KSFF. KCOE will see remaining snow for the longest amount of
time, through around 18Z. KLWS has nearly equal chances of
seeing rain and snow through around 15Z. Most ceilings are MVFR
to IFR, though as the snow stops in the next few hours,
conditions look to improve to MVFR and perhaps even VFR for the
majority of the TAF sites. After a brief break, more snow will
begin around 12Z for KGEG/KSFF/KPUW/KLWS, which will cause
ceilings to again drop to IFR or even LIFR status. By around
00Z, visibility and ceilings will improve at most TAF sites and
rise to MVFR. KMWH and KEAT have a 60-70% chance at staying MVFR
or better beginning at 18Z.


.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
With showers mostly moving out of the area apart from some
lingering snow near KCOE/KPUW, confidence rises to high that
ceilings will improve to MVFR until the next round of snow moves
in around 15Z. Moderate to high confidence in ceilings dropping
back down to IFR/LIFR with snow. Low to moderate confidence in
mixed precipitation for KLWS. Moderate confidence in
precipitation ending around 18Z and ceilings improving in
response. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        28  34  24  36  28  34 /  40  50   0   0  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  29  35  27  38  29  35 /  60  50   0  10  30  50
Pullman        29  35  28  38  26  35 /  40  60  10  10  10  40
Lewiston       33  41  33  42  30  41 /  40  50  10   0   0  30
Colville       22  37  19  37  22  35 /  60  20   0  10  10  30
Sandpoint      27  34  25  35  27  35 /  70  50  10  20  50  60
Kellogg        32  35  29  38  31  36 /  80  80   0  20  40  70
Moses Lake     27  38  24  38  26  35 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Wenatchee      32  39  30  41  28  38 /  20  10   0   0   0  20
Omak           27  39  27  39  26  34 /  20  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PST Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM PST
     Tuesday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

&&

$$