794
FXUS66 KOTX 191202
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
402 AM PST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and cold weather pattern looks to persist through the middle
of the week. Temperatures drop to the coldest readings seen so
far this season by Monday with low temperatures in the single
digits and teens. Temperatures gradually return to more seasonal
levels late this week with chances for snow Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday: The upper level pattern features a sharp
northerly flow across the Inland NW with an elongated ridge of high
pressure along the BC coast to the coastal waters of WA/OR.
Meanwhile a broad area of low pressure spins over central Canada
with an arctic air-mass overtaking the north-central Plains with
sub zero temperatures. As a upper level northerly jet streak
slides over the Pac NW today, a band of mid/high clouds will
continue to push across the region with light snow or flurries
mainly across the mountains of north ID. These elevated clouds
should help minimize the fog and stratus and keep it patchy
through the early morning hours, especially across the Spokane
area. Surface high pressure will persist with light winds
becoming more northerly by afternoon. The Sunday daytime highs are
expected to be fairly similar to those on Saturday as skies begin
to clear from the north.

By tonight into Monday, the mid/high clouds exit the region and
leave a drier northerly flow in their wake. This allows for some
significant radiational cooling and still looks to be the coldest
night so far this winter. The question is just how cold? Any fog
or stratus has the potential to skew these temperature falls and
currently leaning toward minimal development (less than 20%)
despite the light winds as seen in the ensemble model soundings.
Following similar trends with temperatures dropping into the
single digits to teens across the Inland NW with pockets of
subzero possible in sheltered northern valleys. Yes relatively
cold, but not record breaking for mid January. Mostly clear skies
and increased isolation should help temperatures moderate although
daytime highs will struggle to exceed freezing Monday afternoon.
/rfox.

Monday night through Saturday: Below normal temperatures continue
with highs generally in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the
teens to mid 20s. Sheltered valleys in the east Cascades and
northern mountains including the Methow Valley and Republic areas
will continue to see particularly cold low temperatures dropping
into the single digits each night. Dry conditions will persist
through Wednesday, then chances for snow showers return Thursday
with models depicting a trough dropping down over the region from
Central Canada. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact trajectory
of the trough and how much snow it will bring, but right now
accumulations are not looking overly significant. /Fewkes


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Patchy stratus and freezing fog has developed near and
north of KGEG/SFF mainly along the rivers. Mid/high clouds have
limited development, although prevails will likely linger through
the morning hours. MVFR vsbys have been reported with IFR
conditions possible especially near KGEG before 18z. A drier
north to northeastern flow favors improving CIGS and VIS after
this afternoon and early evening with mostly VFR conditions, yet
patchy IFR is still possible in sheltered valleys late Sunday
night. /rfox

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at EAT/MWH. Moderate to high
confidence in MVFR conditions at SFF/COE through Sunday morning.
Moderate confidence in IFR conditions at GEG this morning and low
confidence of IFR late this evening. Moderate to high confidence
in VFR conditions at LWS/PUW. A few flurries may slip by the ID/WA
border but confidence is low as most will be over the Panhandle
mountains.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        29  10  25  18  30  17 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  30   7  24  17  31  15 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        30  10  26  20  32  20 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       36  18  32  22  38  24 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       28   9  24  14  28  13 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      28   8  23  14  28  12 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        28   4  24  15  30  14 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     34  16  30  21  33  20 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      33  17  29  18  31  22 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           30  10  26  14  28  16 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$