271
FXUS66 KOTX 131759
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1059 AM PDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow decreasing by late this morning.

- Gusty north to northeast winds today. Cold wind chills in the
  teens to single digits in the mountains this morning.

- Colder overnight low temperatures Monday Night through
  Wednesday Night.

&&

.UPDATE...
The Winter Weather Advisory for Central and Western Chelan
County will be allowed to expire at 11am. There is still light snow
falling around Blewett Pass and Mission Ridge, but no additional
accumulations are expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will bring gusty north and northeast winds with snow over
the Central Cascades decreasing by late in the morning. Dry
weather with fall like temperatures are expected Tuesday through
Thursday with colder overnight lows. Wet weather and breezy
winds looks to return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A closed low off the northern Oregon coast and a 1028mb
surface high over Alberta will result in gusty north to
northeast winds over the area today. As the low drops south this
morning and further from the area, and drier northeast winds
takes over with precipitation coming to an end. Yet with the low
in close proximity this morning, the low level north-northeast
winds will upslope into the Blewett Pass and Mission Ridge area
where heavy snow amounts are forecast through the morning. Total
snow amounts are expected to range from 8-12" for Blewett Pass
with over a foot for Mission Ridge. The north-northeast winds
will be strongest in the wind channeled areas of the Okanogan
Valley, Purcell Trench in North Idaho, and out over the Columbia
Basin. Wind gusts of 30-40 MPH remain in the forecast for these
areas.

Tonight through Thursday: The low continues to drop south to
near San Francisco, CA overnight before tracking east through
Nevada, SE Idaho, and NW Wyoming Wednesday into Thursday. This
combined with an upper ridge off the coast will provide a dry
north to northeast flow over the region. Pressure gradients will
also ease allowing for colder overnight lows. Frost will occur
for most areas each night, and some frost advisories may be
needed for areas still within the climatological growing season.

Friday through Sunday: Ensembles are coming into better
agreement heading toward next weekend. On Friday a short wave
trough passes mainly north of the area with a chance of showers
limited to mainly the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle. On
Saturday a short wave ridge moves over the area ahead of a
stronger system developing off the coast of British Columbia.
Thus precipitation chances remain low, but this changes heading
into Saturday Night and Sunday as a stronger frontal system
moves through. This will bring increased chances for more
widespread rain and high mountain snow. Washington Pass has a
70% chance of seeing at least 2 inches on Sunday, but odds are
lower for other passes given rather high snow levels around
5000-6000 feet. Breezy winds are also possible with this frontal
system. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: All TAF sites are anticipated to be at VFR through the
forecast period, especially as we move into the afternoon. Some
place still experiencing rain such as KPUW/KLWS could see
ceilings drop to MVFR with rain. Cloud coverage will slowly
start decreasing and all TAF sites will see SCT/FEW cloud decks
by 01-02Z. For the most part, winds will either stay a little
breezy around 10-15kts or weaken to less than 10kts except for
KCOE, which will begin gusting to 20-25kts around 10Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through most areas, especially after 01-02Z.
Moderate confidence that rain will continue for areas such as
MWH/LWS/EAT periodically and end around 21Z.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        31  56  32  59  32  58 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  31  55  33  58  33  58 /   0   0  10  10  10   0
Pullman        29  56  31  54  31  57 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Lewiston       38  59  40  60  39  63 /  10  10  10  20  10   0
Colville       18  56  20  60  21  57 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Sandpoint      26  53  29  56  29  54 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Kellogg        31  54  35  57  36  56 /  10   0  10  20  10  10
Moses Lake     33  60  30  61  31  60 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      36  59  38  63  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           32  60  32  62  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$